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Message: <blockquote data-quote="A Man Called Charolais" data-source="post: 63070">Here's a clever headline from ZeroHedge - <a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/political/can-we-reverse-americas-distemper" target="_blank">Can We Reverse America's Distemper?</a>It's an article on Peter Turchin's theory of cliodynamics that suggests an analysis of the forces that drive  political discord and reconstitution.  It's a position that one could attribute to the left, although it is considerably more sophisticated than generally on offer from them.  It reflects a materialist approach - a scientific historicism so to speak.  It's not a surprise that he was brought up in the USSR.  He has a pragmatic manner and the nodding but unconvinced posture of the genuine Soviet intellectual when asked to remark on doctrinaire truths.  Here's <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcrbz4EoTfw" target="_blank">a university lecture</a> from him. A digest from a progressive publication is below.'He sees four main drivers that lead to societal crisis, of which the most important is "intraelite competition and conflict," and the most variable is "geopolitical factors," which for large and powerful nations like the U.S. tend to be negligible. Another driver, "popular immiseration," increases as population growth drives down living standards, which leads to "elite overproduction," for example when too many middle-class college graduates compete for a stagnant number of well-paying jobs. The last driver, the "failing fiscal health and weakened legitimacy of the state," is exacerbated by both popular immiseration and elite overproduction, which are clearly the central features.  Turchin also focuses attention on what he calls the "engine" at the heart of the model, the previously mentioned  "perverse 'wealth pump'... taking from the poor and giving to the rich." It intensifies and locks in popular immiseration and also drives elite overproduction, undermining social trust at both the top and bottom of the social pyramid. This reflects "one of the most fundamental principles in sociology, the 'iron law of oligarchy,'" he writes, "which states that when an interest group acquires a lot of power, it inevitably starts using that power in self-interested ways."'<a href="https://www.salon.com/2023/06/25/hope-in-end-times-peter-turchins-analysis-of-our-coming-collapse-could-help-us-avoid-it/" target="_blank">https://www.salon.com/2023/06/25/hope-in-end-times-peter-turchins-analysis-of-our-coming-collapse-could-help-us-avoid-it/</a>He's likely to turn up on UnHerd one of these days.  He predicted that the 2020s would be a time of turmoil in 2010.  There's a long march through the institutions sense to his theory although there is no explicit mention of it, and it does stand on its own without connection.  There are numerous conversations that could arise out of it - especially when his introductory lecture, which more fuller describes his theory, is considered.  Peter Hitchens is likely to be highly perturbed by Lord Cameron's return.  I'd say he may have some sympathy with Turchin's account (given his political formation).  There's clearly significiantly more to Turchin's work than an article from salon or an hour lecture can convey - there's a rich seam of commentary to be mined here, all of which may not concur with the progenitor's conclusions or emphases.In any case, not something that you'd expect to turn up on ZeroHedge.  It is directly applicable to Scolaire Bocht's OP in that he discusses how opposition is cultivated - structurally and operationally.  There are features of his theory that have long been recognised in the academic canon.  I'd say that he's interesting and worth a watch (though maybe on one of the more popularly focused formats).Resilience is an important feature of a polity's portfolio of interests.  I should hope that it is an institutional priority.  We could be more deleteriously positioned for this "age of turmoil".  If we can keep our heads (and not turn into a land of whores and junkies) we have a good chance of getting through without too much harm.</blockquote>

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