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Message: <blockquote data-quote="A Man Called Charolais" data-source="post: 63638">Well, I did separate it into paragraphs to make it more legible.  This is about Turchin.  He says that there are socio-economic factors that cause periods of disorder and lays them out in the lecture I linked to above.  He did predict in 2010 that the 2020s would be a time of turmoil.  I hadn't heard of him before the article was listed on the ZeroHedge website.His iron law of oligarchy states that any group when it has access to power will abuse this to "pump" wealth into their circle.  This entails the co-option of pillars of opinion like political parties and the fourth estate - so a reference to Scolaire's assertion.He also says that there is an overproduction of "elites" by which I think he means that there are a lot of people who follow a path they are told will provide security and prosperity but are disappointed, which radicalises them.  Because they have access to "elite" knowledge they are familiar with the levers of power and can use these to upset the oligarchical arrangement.  He maintains that revolutions are never successful bread riots - they always have to be officered to have any chance of success.There's something else though - the overproduction of Bertie and Bertina Woosters and the subsequent stuffing of leadership positions by idiot children.  This was a mark of, for example, the Spanish Empire which caused its long and indolent decline.  Because global dynamics are so frenetic now this type of arrangement will meet a much sooner end in his terms.I found him through reading ZeroHedge (which is a finance orientated website with a libertarian lean) - the comments section weren't kind to the author of the article.I'm not coming down for or against his theory, just adding it to the discussion.  You should watch the UnHerd video - its edifying, the guy is clearly spooked.</blockquote>

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