European elections and locals.

[Coal Gas and peat]

Is Nationalist politics dead in Ireland, I suspect it is. It is dead and buried in England for sure.

not until I'm dead

 

[Anderson]

Is Nationalist politics dead in Ireland, I suspect it is. It is dead and buried in England for sure?

Farage has 17% of the vote in the latest polls with the Torys on 18%.

We are seeing a massive swing form Tory to reform from the Nationalist voters, so we are seeing a new right-wing political movement in the UK, if and when Labour fuck up the economy even more than it is over there, expect more from Labour to swing to reform.

In Ireland the nationalists did make an impact for their first real elections, however because the vote was so split with too many parties there was no message and no joint nationalist voice.

The AFD in Germany is what nationalists here should be copying, one party one voice.

Won't happen though.

 

[Fam Shox]

Farage has 17% of the vote in the latest polls with the Torys on 18%.

We are seeing a massive swing form Tory to reform from the Nationalist voters, so we are seeing a new right-wing political movement in the UK, if and when Labour fuck up the economy even more than it is over there, expect more from Labour to swing to reform.

In Ireland the nationalists did make an impact for their first real elections, however because the vote was so split with too many parties there was no message and no joint nationalist voice.

The AFD in Germany is what nationalists here should be copying, one party one voice.

Won't happen though.

Even if they were united what would be the max seats they would have taken. If they were united for the next GE how many would they take then. I fear not enuf and we will be stuck with a cross between a b movie Dracula and a skid mark for a taoiseach.

 

[Declan]

Looks like Gilhergee will get in for SF but will be at the expense of Gillooley rather than marie walsh now.

wallace is in a tight spot as well.

 

[Fam Shox]

Looks like Gilhergee will get in for SF but will be at the expense of Gillooley rather than marie walsh now.

wallace is in a tight spot as well.

Is Marie walsh not elected, the lesbian one, I thought she romped home.

 

[Declan]

Unfortunately, she is getting decent transfers and now the s far ahead of gillooly the independent who is not getting decent transfers

 

[Coal Gas and peat]

Ming is about 6000 away from the quota now , won't be long until he is in

 

[Fam Shox]

Ming is about 6000 away from the quota now , won't be long until he is in

Hav u a link to a site where I can see results coming in, can't use this phone properly, cheers aulstock.

 

[Coal Gas and peat]

Hav u a link to a site where I can see results coming in, can't use this phone properly, cheers aulstock.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/electio...and-ireland-south-constituencies-1634941.html

 

[Fam Shox]

https://www.breakingnews.ie/electio...and-ireland-south-constituencies-1634941.html

Thanks.

 

[Coal Gas and peat]

Chambers will be next out after mcmanus is put though the mixer , Toibin might just get enough to go ahead of her

 

[Fam Shox]

Brid Smith is gone that's good.

 

[Fam Shox]

Only two out of a hundred gave John waters first pref. That's pretty disappointing.

 

[Declan]

Likely the 2% that did not take the clot shot

 

[Hermit]

Remember the voting system isn't complicated at the point of voting, you just mark in order of preference who you like, and most Irish people are very familiar with it. At the mechanics of vote management it can get very complicated but its also robust in the sense thats its actually difficult to mess up the will of the voters, via 'vote splitting ' etc.

One thing I've learned from this election is that nationalists need to be taught to not give transfers to anti-nationalists. 1,783 people who gave their No. 1 to Derek Blighe gave a transfer to regime gombeen traitor Billy Kelleher FF.

The nationalist candidates who got fuck all votes need to stand down and row in behind the bigger candidates like Blighe.

 

[Declan]

One of the best got just 46 votes in Claremorris??????

 

[scolairebocht]

Yes absolutely Hermit, that is a big deal and needed to be said (and was said by many). That was one of the ideas behind the Westmeath Alliance, it said clearly on the literature that transfers were to go between those candidates (some of whom were independent, some Irish Freedom Party, some Ireland First and helped by National Party members.)

But the truth is the powers that be were ahead of the game there. In every constituency you had, what I consider anyway to be, fake opposition candidates, who made a noise about mass immigration during the campaign, and they ended up hoovering up a lot of transfers that should have stayed within the Nationalist camp. An example might be Peter Casey in the large Euro constituency.

 

[Declan]

Looking good for SF wan now, gillooley has s 1600 behind

 

[scolairebocht]

It's looking very close. Presumably Tobin's vote will go more to Mulooley, and Chambers more to Gildernew, and its about the same number of votes to be distributed from each.

 

[Declan]

Wallace is now doomed

 

[Declan]

Toibins will go to SF more by a long shot imo

 

[scolairebocht]

But in the West they make a big play for Aontu as the Catholic party (I would add fake Catholic party but how and ever) so I am not sure how much that would go to SF.

 

[Declan]

It would be a bit optimistic to expect john waters to be elected. We are dealing with both a stupid AND ignorant voter base that is tied to tradition.

throw in the anti racist brainwasking and those that once having taken the shot are now lost to reality, and it is a miracle that john got as many votes as he did.

Nothing will change til the upcoming mass murder or atrocity.

 

[Coal Gas and peat]

The Ireland South count is over Sinn Fein and fianna fail for the last two seats ......Wallace is gone

 

[Coal Gas and peat]

It's incredible that wee bastard Cynthia ni murichu got elected .....what's she winning for ? Presenting the Eurovision song contest 30 years ago , was it women voted this vile little bitch in for fianna fail ?

 

[Jay Homer Simpson]

It's incredible that wee bastard Cynthia ni murichu got elected .....what's she winning for ? Presenting the Eurovision song contest 30 years ago , was it women voted this vile little bitch in for fianna fail ?

I have completely lost faith in humanity the past few days. FF,FG&SF filling seats like it were 2004

 

[Declan]

Wallace and Daly have only themselves to blame, hamas might have a whip round for them now

 

[scolairebocht]

Just to summarise again for the last seat in the large EU constituency:
Lisa Chambers of FF has been eliminated and it all hangs on her votes, will they go to Mullooly, Independent Ireland, or Gildernew, Sinn Fein. Currently Mullooly is about 4,000 ahead.

My guess is that they will go moreso to Gildernew, although most say differently. The female angle and they are both establishment candidates, whereas Mullooly is the outsider.

But complicating that again is the question of surpluses from maybe Ming and Cowen. Certainly Mullooly might get a lot of Ming's surplus, so I dunno, still difficult to call.

 

[Declan]

One hell f a drama

 

[scolairebocht]

Yes and it can be revealing too when you think of how votes transfer between candidates, you can tell a lot about their electorates. Personally I think you should never underestimate feminism in modern Ireland for example!

 

[scolairebocht]

Another point is that Irish election counting and quirks are a black art, there are tricks and manipulations, just not the simple 'vote splitting' that other countries have.

For example look at Mings surplus, the excess over the quota. You might think that when that gets distributed its in proportion to the second preferences etc of his total vote tally.

It isn't, it will be proportionally distributed from a bundle of the last votes that he will have received. So don't just think 'oh Ming voters would be like so and so', think where did his last votes come from.

 

[scolairebocht]

I think I might have lost people with that last point so maybe I ought to put more detail to it.

As pointed out before, the Proportional Representational system used in Ireland was drawn up to scientifically iron out the problems of 'first past the post' electoral systems, particularly the effect of not representing minorities properly but also avoiding 'vote splitting'. As part of the latter safeguard, they will distribute votes that are excessive, if you like, for a given candidate to get elected with. So they figure out the number of votes needed to get elected, the 'quota', then if a person exceeds that during the count they will distribute back into the system that surplus.

Fair enough so Luke 'Ming' Flanagan now is on 118,754 votes and the quota is 113,325 so there is a 'surplus' of 5,400 or so to be distributed now (and maybe more if he gets some from Chambers now, but I doubt if he will get too many of those). But these are not distributed back in proportion to the next preferences among his entire pool of votes, as you might have expected.

Instead you have to imagine a candidate getting an ever larger bundle of votes during the various counts. So now, to distribute Ming's surplus, they will take 5,400 votes off the top of his pile, they won't look through the whole pile, and distribute those according to the next preference on the ballot papers. So when you think of where will those votes go, you are not saying 'ah well Ming's votes would be like this' instead you are asking what will happen to votes that were originally Tobin's of Aontu and then went to Ming. This is because Tobin's votes put him over the quota, it is his 8,200 votes, meaning 8,200 of Tobin's votes when he was eliminated which had Ming as the next preference, that are at the top of his pile and which are now distributed.

The point being that those votes, Tobin and then Ming on the ballot paper, I would say would go overwhelmingly to Mullooly.

 

[SeekTheFairLand]

The Ireland South count is over Sinn Fein and fianna fail for the last two seats ......Wallace is gone

View: https://x.com/sinnfeinireland/status/1801367212000952502

 

[valamhic]

Even if they were united what would be the max seats they would have taken. If they were united for the next GE how many would they take then. I fear not enuf and we will be stuck with a cross between a b movie Dracula and a skid mark for a taoiseach.

Six seats I guess.

 

[valamhic]

I think I might have lost people with that last point so maybe I ought to put more detail to it.

As pointed out before, the Proportional Representational system used in Ireland was drawn up to scientifically iron out the problems of 'first past the post' electoral systems, particularly the effect of not representing minorities properly but also avoiding 'vote splitting'. As part of the latter safeguard, they will distribute votes that are excessive, if you like, for a given candidate to get elected with. So they figure out the number of votes needed to get elected, the 'quota', then if a person exceeds that during the count they will distribute back into the system that surplus.

Fair enough so Luke 'Ming' Flanagan now is on 118,754 votes and the quota is 113,325 so there is a 'surplus' of 5,400 or so to be distributed now (and maybe more if he gets some from Chambers now, but I doubt if he will get too many of those). But these are not distributed back in proportion to the next preferences among his entire pool of votes, as you might have expected.

Instead you have to imagine a candidate getting an ever larger bundle of votes during the various counts. So now, to distribute Ming's surplus, they will take 5,400 votes off the top of his pile, they won't look through the whole pile, and distribute those according to the next preference on the ballot papers. So when you think of where will those votes go, you are not saying 'ah well Ming's votes would be like this' instead you are asking what will happen to votes that were originally Tobin's of Aontu and then went to Ming. This is because Tobin's votes put him over the quota, it is his 8,200 votes, meaning 8,200 of Tobin's votes when he was eliminated which had Ming as the next preference, that are at the top of his pile and which are now distributed.

The point being that those votes, Tobin and then Ming on the ballot paper, I would say would go overwhelmingly to Mullooly.

This does appear to be the situation when I read Section 121 of the Act. The percentage based distribution of surpluses stops after the 2nd count. It is a sort of lottery thereafter. I started a thread on this where ever it is now?

 

[valamhic]

Mulooley was elected and the first thing he said was he is a centrist and is not a climate change denier. So, RTE have their man in the EU parliament now? Some radical shake up that was.

Final Irish MEPs elected after five days of counting

The final Irish seats for the European Parliament have been filled, with the conclusion of the count in the Midlands-North-West constituency.

www.rte.ie

 

[Coal Gas and peat]

I didn't give mulooley a preference .......but again I ask why was he elected? Was it because he went mad a few times on TV3 tonight show about tubridy and the RTE scandal ? ......I think a lot of farmers voted for him , I can't say if he will be any good or not

 

[SeekTheFairLand]

Mulooley was elected and the first thing he said was he is a centrist and is not a climate change denier. So, RTE have their man in the EU parliament now? Some radical shake up that was.

Final Irish MEPs elected after five days of counting

The final Irish seats for the European Parliament have been filled, with the conclusion of the count in the Midlands-North-West constituency.

www.rte.ie

Ireland always 20 years behind where the rest of the Europe is. Slow learners are the Irish, but they'll catch on yet. Gildernew or Mulooly, what odds which got it. The only thing we can hope for is that Shinner flop to nationalism to try and style thunder from the 10,000s of votes for Aontu, Waters and Kelly.

 

[SeekTheFairLand]

I didn't give mulooley a preference .......but again I ask why was he elected? Was it because he went mad a few times on TV3 tonight show about tubridy and the RTE scandal ? ......I think a lot of farmers voted for him , I can't say if he will be any good or not

The election to Europe is the only thing that matters. What they do in the EU is irrelevant. The EU parliament is a farce and good only for dumping fuckers in to be out of national politics for a few years.

 

[Anderson]

I didn't give mulooley a preference .......but again I ask why was he elected? Was it because he went mad a few times on TV3 tonight show about tubridy and the RTE scandal ? ......I think a lot of farmers voted for him , I can't say if he will be any good or not

I gave him my last and final preference, Number 8.

I wish it had been someone like Waters that got in though.