Artifical Intelligence and it's impacts.

jpc said:

With all the guff around here on various subjects.
This is the big one that's going to impact on our lives in way's we have barely considered.
Let's see what people think.

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Declan said:

I will hardly be able to find it but I recently read an article saying about 6 BILLION people will be superfluous.

Take what I do. For money conscious people, like those coming off a cruise ship, I am already replaced by a phone app. For rich people, that is not the case of course and fortunately I am at the top of the scale in Boston because I know more than just local history. I know engineering and architecture. I have exceedingly quick wit and more importantly I can read the person and have then corresponding political views etc.


Other professions like lawyers even, are going to be replaced . It is going to be mind boggling

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Declan said:

It is a given imo that we are to see a dramatic population reduction.

https://www.npr.org/2025/01/17/nx-s1-5265095/china-population-declines-economy

China will likely lose 4 million this year

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Myles O'Reilly said:

To hell with you JPC

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jpc said:

Here's the thing.
At the moment you can access different AIs gronk, chathpt etc.
Basic stuff.
And you pack accordingly afterwards.
What's the story when everyone is dependent on them.
These data centers consume enormous amounts of power.
Companies will remove vast majority of their human staff.
Who's going to pay for all this.
Where is,what is the business model?

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ghibelline said:

This is just another phase of technologies' reducing our lives to the status of unemployed people on social welfare.

We need to return to an agricultural society in which people do manual labour because they are not allowed to receive welfare unless they do it & the jobs should be there which means we have to get rid of technologies that are taking those jobs.

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jpc said:

That doesn't work well!
The real issue with all the AI business models.
What or more correctly when another Carrington event occurs.
All the old skills are gone.
What then.

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• 
  
• Solar Flare: On September 1, 1859, British astronomer Richard Carrington observed an extraordinarily bright solar flare erupting from a sunspot cluster. This was the first ever recorded observation of a solar flare.
• • Coronal Mass Ejection (CME): It is now understood that this solar flare was associated with a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) – a massive burst of solar wind and magnetic energy – that was directed straight at Earth. This CME traveled at an unusually high speed, reaching Earth in a record-breaking 17.6 hours (typical CMEs take several days).
    
    
    
    
  • The Effects on Earth:
  • 
    
  • 
    
  • Global Auroras: The most striking and widespread effect was the appearance of incredibly bright and colorful auroras (Northern and Southern Lights) that were seen globally. These auroras were so intense that:
    • They were visible as far south as the Caribbean (Cuba and Jamaica) and even Honolulu, Hawaii.
      
      
      
    • People in the northern latitudes could read newspapers by their light in the middle of the night.
      • • Gold miners in the Rocky Mountains woke up and started making breakfast at 1 AM, mistaking the bright sky for dawn.
          
          
      • Telegraph System Disruption: This was the primary technological impact of the time:
        • Fires and Shocks: Telegraph systems across Europe and North America experienced widespread failures.Operators reported sparks showering from machines, receiving electric shocks, and in some cases, telegraph papers catching fire due to the massive surge in geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in the long telegraph wires.
          
          
          
          
        • Independent Operation: Some telegraph operators found they could unplug their batteries and still send messages using only the current induced by the aurora itself!
          
          
      • Magnetic Disturbances: Ground-based magnetometers (instruments that measure changes in Earth's magnetic field) were thrown off scale.
        Why it's so significant: The Carrington Event demonstrated a clear and dramatic connection between solar activity and effects on Earth's atmosphere and technology. It was a wake-up call, albeit one that was largely forgotten as technology advanced.
        
        
        
        
        What if it happened today? Scientists and experts are very concerned about a repeat of the Carrington Event in our modern, technologically dependent world. If a solar storm of similar magnitude were to hit Earth today, the consequences could be catastrophic:
        
        • Widespread Power Blackouts: GICs could overload and damage electrical transformers in power grids, leading to widespread and long-lasting blackouts across entire continents, potentially for weeks or even months.
          
          
          
        • Satellite Damage: Satellites (essential for GPS, communication, weather forecasting, and more) could be severely damaged or rendered inoperable by the increased radiation and currents.
          • Communication Breakdown: Internet, mobile phone networks, radio, and television could experience widespread outages due to damage to infrastructure and satellites.
            
            
            
          • Economic Impact: The economic losses could be trillions of dollars globally, impacting critical infrastructure, financial markets, emergency services, and supply chains.
            
            
            
          • The Carrington Event serves as a stark reminder of the potential vulnerabilities of our interconnected society to extreme space weather. While such events are rare, they highlight the importance of understanding and preparing for solar storms.
      • For some reason, I had to copy and paste that in chunks ~ Maybe it's a bit all over the place !

clarke-connolly said:

The Carrington Event ~ Explained by Gemini Artificial Intelligence.

The "Carrington Event" refers to the most intense geomagnetic storm in recorded history, which peaked on September 1-2, 1859.




Here's a breakdown of what happened and its effects:

The Cause:

• 
  
• Solar Flare: On September 1, 1859, British astronomer Richard Carrington observed an extraordinarily bright solar flare erupting from a sunspot cluster. This was the first ever recorded observation of a solar flare.
• • Coronal Mass Ejection (CME): It is now understood that this solar flare was associated with a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) – a massive burst of solar wind and magnetic energy – that was directed straight at Earth. This CME traveled at an unusually high speed, reaching Earth in a record-breaking 17.6 hours (typical CMEs take several days).
    
    
    
    
  • The Effects on Earth:
  • 
    
  • 
    
  • 
    
  • Global Auroras:The most striking and widespread effect was the appearance of incredibly bright and colorful auroras (Northern and Southern Lights) that were seen globally. These auroras were so intense that:
    • They were visible as far south as the Caribbean (Cuba and Jamaica) and even Honolulu, Hawaii.
      
      
      
    • People in the northern latitudes could read newspapers by their light in the middle of the night.
      • • Gold miners in the Rocky Mountains woke up and started making breakfast at 1 AM, mistaking the bright sky for dawn.
          
      • Telegraph System Disruption:This was the primary technological impact of the time:
        • Fires and Shocks: Telegraph systems across Europe and North America experienced widespread failures.Operators reported sparks showering from machines, receiving electric shocks, and in some cases, telegraph papers catching fire due to the massive surge in geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in the long telegraph wires.
          
          
          
          
        • Independent Operation: Some telegraph operators found they could unplug their batteries and still send messages using only the current induced by the aurora itself!
          
      • Magnetic Disturbances: Ground-based magnetometers (instruments that measure changes in Earth's magnetic field) were thrown off scale.
        Why it's so significant: The Carrington Event demonstrated a clear and dramatic connection between solar activity and effects on Earth's atmosphere and technology. It was a wake-up call, albeit one that was largely forgotten as technology advanced.
        
        
        
        
        What if it happened today? Scientists and experts are very concerned about a repeat of the Carrington Event in our modern, technologically dependent world. If a solar storm of similar magnitude were to hit Earth today, the consequences could be catastrophic:
        • Widespread Power Blackouts: GICs could overload and damage electrical transformers in power grids, leading to widespread and long-lasting blackouts across entire continents, potentially for weeks or even months.
          
          
          
        • Satellite Damage:Satellites (essential for GPS, communication, weather forecasting, and more) could be severely damaged or rendered inoperable by the increased radiation and currents.
          • Communication Breakdown: Internet, mobile phone networks, radio, and television could experience widespread outages due to damage to infrastructure and satellites.
            
            
            
          • Economic Impact: The economic losses could be trillions of dollars globally, impacting critical infrastructure, financial markets, emergency services, and supply chains.
            
            
            
          • The Carrington Event serves as a stark reminder of the potential vulnerabilities of our interconnected society to extreme space weather. While such events are rare, they highlight the importance of understanding and preparing for solar storms.
      • For some reason, I had to copy and paste that in chunks ~ Maybe it's a bit all over the place !

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ghibelline said:

This is just another phase of technologies' reducing our lives to the status of unemployed people on social welfare.

We need to return to an agricultural society in which people do manual labour because they are not allowed to receive welfare unless they do it & the jobs should be there which means we have to get rid of technologies that are taking those jobs.

Click to expand...

Mad as Fish said:

I follow a couple of academic lads on LinkedIn, one of whom regularly chokes in frustration at the claims being made for AI.

Like every over hyped event there are billions riding on this as those who think they can spot a winner and pile in after swallowing whole all the propaganda and hyperbole that acommpanies these rip offs.

As I understand it there are several computing elements within AI programmes and all have been found to suffer shortcomings. Unfortunately, I am away from the main PC so can't go back to refresh my memory, but I recall they have run up against brick walls in their development and can go no further, however, this is not being discussed outside academic circles. Remember how we are all meant to be riding around in autonomous cars by now? Same applies to AI, you can get 90% there but crossing the line is impossible.

My definition of AI is that when it asks questions and sets goals, rather than just answering them and creating stratagies, then we may have arrived at a point where we really do have competition.

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More Than Just Autocomplete

What Anthropic’s New Paper Reveals About AI

treeofwoe.substack.com

willows68 said:

Why? Just curious.

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Myles O'Reilly said:

Because he got me banned from the Ukraine thread.

Ballinasloe Kelly is being led like a Donkey up the Galway road.

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Myles O'Reilly said:

I was banned from the Ukraine thread. Someone said it was you wot banned me JPC!

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Mad as Fish said:

Another interesting point that has emerged is that AI (as it is called) is more suited to taking on the work of middle management rather than manual workers. Management roles tend to focus upon data/information collection, analysiing it and then implementing decisions based on both the data and a reference protocol, that is, the organisation's policies. This is far more amenable to automation than, say, driving a truck.

Will the middle managers be like turkeys voting for Christmas, or will they be blocking/slowing the introduction of AI as it looms over their own little empires?

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jpc said:

Yep
Anyone who is providing a hands on trade or service is in an OK place for a long time Yet.
Ironically these jobs have been ignored by the youngsters coming into the job market.

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jpc said:

Yep
Anyone who is providing a hands on trade or service is in an OK place for a long time Yet.
Ironically these jobs have been ignored by the youngsters coming into the job market.

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Oliver Wyman’s Fleet Forecast Shows Aircraft Order Backlog Breaks Record At 17,000

Oliver Wyman launches the Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2025-2035, which shows the global commercial aviation fleet poised for a significant expansion

www.oliverwyman.com

Mad as Fish said:

Indeed-

Labor shortages continue to intensify, with North America expected to face a shortfall of 40,000 aviation mechanics by 2028, driving up wages and maintenance costs.

Oliver Wyman’s Fleet Forecast Shows Aircraft Order Backlog Breaks Record At 17,000

Oliver Wyman launches the Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2025-2035, which shows the global commercial aviation fleet poised for a significant expansion

www.oliverwyman.com

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jpc said:

Mate is a service engineer for a commercial vehicle dealer.

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Myles O'Reilly said:

Isn't that what's called a mechanic Sir?

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jpc said:

Hard to get folks that can spanner competently.
Mate is a service engineer for a commercial vehicle dealer.
Can't get guys who actually are happy to do the work.

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Mad as Fish said:

Another interesting point that has emerged is that AI (as it is called) is more suited to taking on the work of middle management rather than manual workers. Management roles tend to focus upon data/information collection, analysiing it and then implementing decisions based on both the data and a reference protocol, that is, the organisation's policies. This is far more amenable to automation than, say, driving a truck.

Will the middle managers be like turkeys voting for Christmas, or will they be blocking/slowing the introduction of AI as it looms over their own little empires?

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Mad as Fish said:

I've a feeling that one of the reasons is that kids aren't exposed to the workings of machines like they used to be. Cars, for instance, are virtually impossible to home service or fix unless you have a very well equipped garage so what lies under the bonnet is a mystery to the majority, so they never help dad change the oil or switch the brake pads.

The irony is that this is precisely how the manufacturers wanted it, as the cars now need to be taken to their dealers for repair, but now they are screaming because nobody is interested in doing the job.

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clarke-connolly said:

Clever insight there.

Yeah cars have become a big mystery these days to the vast majority of People. There was a time when quite a few People would have a decent understanding of the rudimentary workings of cars / tractors / lorries.

When you think about it there is so much in Peoples lives today that they have absolutely no idea how it works ~ Cars / Computers / The Internet, to name just three ~ There are many more that we don't even give much thought to !

Would anyone try to fix their own, washing machine / cooker / dish washer / almost everything we use everyday ? !

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BIG FAT HOOR said:

10 years ago my surveys of free travel ticket holders were submitted to AI/software and it did what no civil servant could .
it could see that a person boarded a bus in moville co donegal at 0930 and got out in derry 1000 and hopped on my bus at 1130 in kilkenny to go to carlow .
this cannot be seen by human mind as all you have is a number to go on --so for the first time a multi million operation had a security check to dedect fraud and it could determine supply and demand and hundreds of other bits of valauble info .
currently in china they are zooming ahead of us and the yanks and are light years ahead each month .
any bog standard factory must submit its management plans and daily operating proceduers to AI and also the management and each week the managerment is trialled against AI and questions are asked as to why management did not see what was required before AI as they are the professionals and they have to have reasons ready why they were so stupid not to see what the AI did and therefore each decision is now automattically reviewed by AI as a matter of course .
we are a long way behind this -- we are not even thinking this way but it will come in a flash as if one co in the market does it the remainder are fucked.
VLADIMER PUTIN --THE COUNTRY WHICH LEADS IN AI WILL IN A SHORT TIME RULE THE WORLD.

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Mad as Fish said:

As part of the right to repair campaign in America it has emerged that washing machines in particular are designed so that they cannot be repaired.

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