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Social networks and dissident Chinese youtube channels (but not the mass media as of yet) have been abuzz for the last few months with speculation that President Xi Jinping, the iron ruler, almost dictator, of China of the last few years, has fallen from power and is awaiting his fate at the hands of his colleagues in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This might have happened because of enemies of his, and to a degree the CCP in general, inside China, Russia and the US:
Inside China
The Chinese Premier, Li Keqiang, was reported to have had a fatal heart attack in the swimming pool of the Shanghai Dongjiao Hotel on the 26 October 2023. But it has since been claimed, via a Chinese whistleblower now in Burma, that it was all along a political assassination, presumably initiated by President Xi.(1) The point here is that all these Communist parties, including for example the Soviet Communist Party at least from the time of Khrushchev, while having fierce internal power plays and rivalries, never resort to actually killing each other. Its kind of an unwritten rule, a bit like ‘made men’ in the mafia, and if Xi really did authorise a killing like this, then that is a clear red line that the top ranks of the Chinese Communist Party are not likely to forgive and forget.
The other point is the rather obvious one that the CCP is an oligarchy, not, at least since the times of Mao and maybe Deng, a dictatorship, and hence the role of leader of China has been filled only to a maximum of two five year terms. When Xi breached that a few years ago, going for a third term, he alienated all the others, who went from jostling for a power they might hope at one day to hold, to just waiting on Xi’s every word, scrambling for the crumbs of power and influence that fall from his table. This is not what the CCP are used to or, in the case of many of them, like very much.
In general too its not just the question of Li Keqiang, there have been numerous purges, humiliations and falls from grace that must have alienated a lot of people in China. By ‘humiliations’ I mean for example what happened to the previous leader, Hu Jintao, in 2022, as you can see in this video:
He is reported to be one of the people who have quietly come back, to steady the ship after the reported fall of Xi. Even hugely powerful and wealthy business people, like Jack Ma of Alibaba for example, have disappeared from view in strange circumstances.
So in short there must be a huge build up of enemies of Xi within China, who may have now overwhelmed him in some sense. This could be allied to problems that have arisen in some of his policies, for example:
– Economic policies.
In short, public and private debt levels in China are reckoned to be very high, and are generally secured against property prices (like private mortgages obviously). However these have been falling in China especially since the bankruptcy of Evergrande, the huge property company, so its unclear how the public who are tied up in this debt, or the banks or big businesses, are going to survive in an economy very used to huge growth levels but which have now declined markedly.
For example even BYD, the huge EV car maker much ballyhooed and championed by Xi, is in big trouble with a price war against Tesla, growing unpopularity with EVs in general, and facing massive tariffs in the US and possibly elsewhere.(2) If it was to go under, you can easily see how that might impact on Xi’s popularity, and his perception within the Party if they know this is to happen.
There is also of course the possibility of widespread social unrest with this economic downturn. There are many millions out there working from 9 in the morning to 9 at night, 6 days a week, whose only asset is an apartment say, who now face losing that in a country not known for its social security safety net.
– The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
This is Xi’s flagship policy, supporting infrastructure and other works overseas in a way that would bend world supply lines (like shipping lanes and oil and gas pipelines) to more depend on and centre on China. This might have been somewhat successful but to many in China it looks like foreign aid to places like Africa, when many Chinese natives are very poor and would like that aid to go to themselves. Hence its not as popular within China as some might suppose.
– The possibility of war over Taiwan and great support to Russia in Ukraine, and a possibility of strongly supporting Iran against Israel.
Xi comes across in these debates as the hawk in China, for example it looks like he was preparing to invade Taiwan quite soon, maybe even already if he was still in power, and in general is known as a strong supporter of the Russians in the Ukraine War and was thought to be anxious to resupply Iran in a militant manner.
That might have made him unpopular, because some might have seen a Taiwan war as a gamble they don’t wish to take. Obviously the Chinese military machine is huge right now, well able to overawe a smallish island in Taiwan, but such an invasion brings obvious risks. The point is that the Peoples Republic of China versus Taiwan is no contest (although it could be quite bloody) but China v. Japan (which has just rearmed to quite an extent in recent years), the Philippines, South Korea and the USA, if such a coalition was possible (and the US approach to Taiwan is deliberately ambiguous), is a different thing entirely. That is, as I say, a gamble, and if you are sitting on the huge pile of riches and privileges that the Chinese Communist party sits on, why gamble at all?
So Xi’s reported war mongering, might have also made him unpopular.
Russian attitude
Before this President Putin and Russia have been very strong supporters and allies of Xi. Xi has been a strong supporter of the Ukraine war and is helping out the Russians quite a lot there in logistics (as of course are the North Koreans, allied, to an extent, with China). However, its reported that a senior Chinese defector to Russia (who was sent back) advised them that China has contingency plans to invade Russian Siberia. Any possibility at all of the Chinese threatening the Russian East while their forces are in Europe dealing with Ukraine, no doubt went down very very badly in the Kremlin, so Xi might have made enemies here as well.(3)
