Robert Kagan is even less optimistic about the War on Iran....
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Washington’s conduct in the Iran war is accelerating global chaos and deepening America’s dangerous isolation, Robert Kagan argues.
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The war “has both exposed and exacerbated the dangers of our new, fractured, multipolar reality,” Kagan writes, “driving deeper wedges between the United States and former friends and allies;
strengthening the hands of the expansionist great powers, Russia and China; accelerating global political and economic chaos; and leaving the United States weaker and more isolated than at any time since the 1930s. Even success against Iran will be hollow if it hastens the collapse of the alliance system that for eight decades has been the true source of America’s power, influence, and security.”
The Iran war has been a significant strategic setback for America’s allies in Europe, as increased oil prices and lifted sanctions are helping Russia replenish its war chest “just as its wartime deficits were starting to cause significant pain,” Kagan continues. Blockages in the Strait of Hormuz, poor communication from the Trump administration about the war, and a displacement of resources that would otherwise protect against potential Chinese aggression have also been damaging for America’s allies in East Asia and the Western Pacific, Kagan continues.
Europeans are facing “an unremittingly hostile United States—one that no longer treats its allies as allies or differentiates between allies and potential adversaries,” Kagan continues. “When Trump discovered that he needed the help of allies against Iran, he did not ask them for help or work to persuade them. He simply ‘demanded’ that they do what he said. Trump doesn’t want allies—he wants vassals.”
“As a result, friends and allies will be ever less willing to cooperate with the United States,” Kagan writes. “Nations around the world will come to rely not on American commitments and permanent alliances but on ad hoc coalitions to address crises.
No one will cooperate with the United States by choice, only by coercion. Without allies, the United States will have to depend on clients that it controls, such as Venezuela, or weaker powers that it can bully.”