Turmoil in the Silver Market threatens global financial stability

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scolairebocht

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On Friday last, St Stephen’s Day 2025, the silver price in the US “hit an all-time high of $77.4 per ounce, on a 167% year-to-date surge”, as reported by Reuters, and this had led to some speculation that this sudden rise could hit hard the complicated world of financial derivatives (that is instruments that ‘derive’ from some financial index or price, in this case obviously the silver price). Its said that this has come as a great surprise to some big US and overseas banks, that they could be on the hook for huge losses which could spill over into other areas of the financial system. Who knows what will happen but a few issues that arise here might interest people:


Leverage

The price of silver has indeed risen a lot in the last year, but the current spike is still only about 10% on a given day, yes its big but why would that start crashing banks and create talk of bankruptcy etc?

The point is that these trades are nearly always heavily leveraged, with only a small percentage, say 10 or 15%, actually put up by the traders initially. Most people I am sure understand that, but just to clarify: if I buy a stock now for €100 euro of my own money, and it falls 20% in value to €80, then I have lost that 20% only, bad but not that bad; if, on the other hand, I buy €100 of the stock with €10 of my own money and borrow the other €90, which is what we mean by heavily leveraged, then if the stock falls 20% in value I have lost €20 on an outlay of €10, I have wiped out my whole investment and now am 100% of that original value in the red as well. Of course what some people might say is that the silver price is rising not falling, so that doesn’t apply. But it does apply if you have shorted the price, as is reported to have happened, e.g. if I have contracted to deliver 1,000 ounces of silver to a person in February 2026 at $40 an ounce, and now I have to buy the silver to meet that contract, in the current market where it is rising above $80 an ounce (in weekend Asian trades anyway), then you can see how the above losses can apply even though the silver price is rising.

In any case this is how these trades can get quite scary quite quickly, but mostly we are talking paper losses only, it only matters if you have to sell out and maybe the situation might stabilise before that happens. However, its rumoured that the big silver exchanges, particularly Comex, had their computer systems tripped by the big changes in the silver price, and when that happened they asked the big banks to stump up the cash underlying these trades, a margin call, hence they have had to realise these loses now. The rumour is that these banks couldn’t pay, and hence had to get billions of dollars in emergency aid from the Federal Reserve over the holiday season.


Possible Stampede for Physical Silver

In all of this we are mostly talking about traders in silver who are, if you like, placing bets on its future price not unlike a casino, or traders who are using the silver price as a hedge against other financial transactions (so I could, say, buy something in the stockmarket that tends to rise when silver falls or vis a versa and so combine that purchase with some silver derivative to future proof or stabilise my investment), but not, generally, people who want or need physical quantities of silver. They are only dealing in paper, silver IOUs if you like.

But the problem is that at times this market in silver derivatives, the paperwork and guessing game over the price of silver as opposed to the physical trading of the item, sometimes looks like fractional reserve banking if not an outright Ponzi scheme. The issue is that there is said to be as much as 250 to 400 times more silver IOUs, in simple terms, than there is physical silver in play in the market at any given time. So just like a bank run, where a bank couldn’t possibly give out all its cash deposits at any one time because it has loaned it out to others, the silver traders cannot possibly cope if all these IOU holders now demand physical silver. But if confidence tanks completely in the silver market, that is indeed what might happen, and there is not a lot of wriggle room by Central Banks to fix a problem like this, because no matter what they do they cannot create physical silver out of thin air to meet this demand.

On top of that there is in fact a genuine serious demand for physical silver by industry. Battery technology, and Solar Panels, are developing in a way that they actually need more physical silver than before. For example the new solid state AG-C batteries by Samsung, which are reckoned the latest tech for fast charging and long ranges in EV cars, could potentially use as much as a kg of silver per car, and silver is also a key component of Solar Panels which are currently been rolled out in a huge way across much of the Chinese landscape. But to meet this demand there is little enough recycling of old silver, in say electronic components, or new mining which would frequently have to go deeper in existing nearly exhausted mines, because with the silver price so low for the last few decades it wasn’t worth anybody’s while developing these sources of silver. So there is a physical supply and demand crunch happening as well.
 

World Financial Stability

Unfortunately there is a lot of reason to question world financial stability anyway, for example:

– Maybe some stock exchanges are very over valued. Some companies are being quoted in the billions if not trillions based on huge future projected earnings, as opposed to real actual ones. For example Nvidia, the main maker of graphics chips used by AI programs, had annual profits up to last October of about 100 billion dollars, but their market valuation on the stock exchanges is a cool 4.69 trillion, yes thats with a ‘t’, giving you a Price/Earnings ratio of about 47. But not all that long ago huge companies, like this certainly is now, would be priced at only about 10 times earnings, who is to say that the current huge expenditure on AI is to last?
Another area with a lot of hype and maybe over valuation could be Electric cars. For example Ford went into that area in a big way a few years ago, but now they have decided to reverse direction and are scaling back those plans, reverting to more petrol and hybrid engines, and to get out of most EVs they are projecting a 19.5 billion dollar hit on their profits in the next few years. If other car companies with less deep pockets were to be hit by that kind of charge, and if Ford’s now very pessimistic view of EV sales was to pan out, because actually a lot of consumers just don’t want them, then many other car companies could be in trouble and be very over valued now.
In any case the ups and downs of the stock exchanges are always subject to debate, but it does look more over valued than not, and that the down side could be quite severe.

– World Currencies are backed up by governments which are now frequently, hugely indebted. By no means just the US, most Western countries have now got debts which form a great chunk of the combined GDP of their whole economies. If a lack of confidence was to permeate these financial markets, where governments go into the markets looking for money to roll over their huge debts, and hence they cannot roll it over, then you are into currency crises and maybe huge devaluations, etc etc.

– World Trade, in so far as it depends on trust between nations, is not looking too healthy either. Recently the EU has threatened to confiscate and spend enormous sums of money held by Russians in Europe, even though they are not at war with Russia and these assets are usually privately held and owned, nothing to do with the Russian war effort. This kind of attempt might drain confidence among many countries that their monies are safe in the West.
We also have tariff wars or the threat of tariff wars, between say the US and China with, as part of that, the latter stopping or restricting the export of rare earth minerals and metals which are vital to many industries, and this actually includes silver as of the beginning of 2026.
Finally the other obvious point is that some of the big powers are now seizing one anothers oil tankers on the high seas, particularly the US in its build up towards Venezuela. Some of that oil is said to be owned by Iran and possibly China. Meanwhile Iran has responded by seizing an oil tanker itself and clearly tit by tat retaliations are possible here, with obvious implications for the sense of stability and confidence in world trade.

All of this sense of instability could impact now on the silver situation, because clearly if its a house of cards anyway then it won’t take much to topple over these financial markets, and also if countries like China, which has a big demand for physical silver, were to insist forcibly on getting it now rather than waiting for things to settle, because they can see these storm clouds, then clearly it will exacerbate the existing problems.


Conclusion

This may or may not be the ‘big one’, in the sense that it would spark the kind of huge financial meltdown that many people have been predicting for many years, but whatever happens you can be sure that the globalist powers are ahead of us and are planning to use this crisis, artificially created or not, to further their agenda. There already is a lot of talk that any new banking crisis will involve ‘bail ins’ rather than ‘bail outs’, meaning the confiscation of privately held savings in those banks, and if currency wars break out then hovering in the wings are the new digital currencies, with their massive state control and power which the globalists love. Its interesting for example that the EU have stepped up their digital currency plans this year, formulating some of them in meetings held as recently as Christmas Eve last.

In any case this site is blessed with at least one silver expert, who is following the drama on another thread, but I thought an overview of the problem might be helpful.

by Brian Nugent, http://www.orwellianireland.com
 
Some random figures re EVs requiring 1kg of silver each.

That would be over 2,500 dollars per EV at present prices.

There are 26,000 tonnes of silver mined per year

There are 17.3 m EVs produced annually. If each were to require 1kg of silver an extra 17,300 tonnes of silver would be required each year.

It ain't gonna happen.
 
It is a bit more complicated. You can write endless contracts to sell silver in the future, despite not having any silver at all.

It is the lad BUYING the contract that can buy on leverage. It is normally 5% but they have raised that and may well raise it to 100%. Meaning no leverage at all.


They could even change the rule to only all selling of contracts.

Say I have 5 contracts for March at a certain price. Then I could buy no more and neither could anyone else, so the price would in normal times drop like a stone.

To simplify, anyone that sold contracts to deliver silver in the future are in trouble because at the moment they need to buy that silver.

BUT.
They can change the rules. And force the lad demanding the silver to take cash instead, whether he likes it or not. This saves the system but likely destroys the futures market.


NOTE.
I do not and never will trade futures.

I do buy options. And I do write(sell) options. Both Calls and Puts. The only exception is , I will not write(sell) and uncovered or naked Call .


If I sell a Call contract, it is only if I actually already own the 100 shares of that stock, so if it goes against me and my shared are “called” away, at least I have them to deliver them to the lucky person.

God forbid you are Called and you dont iwn the shares, then you have to buy them no matter what price they could be at.
 
Yes Mad as Fish, it does look a bit cracked now to talk about 1kg of silver per car, but a while ago it might have seemed a good idea to those engineers because actually silver was cheap and anyway people are paying a fortune for those cars.

Its not just EVs where the use of silver looks like making the profits of some products go haywire at current prices, the interesting article that Declan linked to is talking about the profits for solar panel makers going to zero at the price that silver threatens to hit.

So Declan if I was to hit you with the six millon dollar question, what are the odds now of the silver drama hitting the rest of the financial world hard and maybe a crash? 50/50 or a bit below or above it?
 
When something like what you are seeing now happens, there is always someone losing serious money. In this case, anyone that bet against silver and are short .

As best I can make out, the only american bank in trouble MIGHT be Bank of America. But I have seen numerous foreign banks mentioned.

Also there likely are traders and mutual funds in trouble .

I would say that if silver ends up higher tomorrow Monday, then it is very likely that we will see a big bankruptcy. It is likely that silver could rocket past a 100. We shall see.
 
The other great danger is the bond auctions not getting enough bids
 
scolairebocht said:
Yes Mad as Fish, it does look a bit cracked now to talk about 1kg of silver per car, but a while ago it might have seemed a good idea to those engineers because actually silver was cheap and anyway people are paying a fortune for those cars.

Its not just EVs where the use of silver looks like making the profits of some products go haywire at current prices, the interesting article that Declan linked to is talking about the profits for solar panel makers going to zero at the price that silver threatens to hit.

So Declan if I was to hit you with the six millon dollar question, what are the odds now of the silver drama hitting the rest of the financial world hard and maybe a crash? 50/50 or a bit below or above it?
Click to expand...
Thankfully the push for EVs is unwinding rapidly with copper being another metal that is adding to the woes of manufacturers as there is simply not the production capacity to supply the demand. It's price has almost trebled in the last ten years.

I see the whole greenwash promoted switch to electrical everything as now running out of steam. As mentioned elsewhere, databanks and AI are going to run a coach and horses through plans for managing any sort of energy transition, leading to the demand for solar panels to fall and the calls for a return to nuclear power to mount up.

In America at least the solar panel is beginning to lose its appeal as systems age and become unserviceable due to many of the earlier components no longer being available. It will not help their cause and the price is becoming prohibitive as it is. The Irish government has cut the subsidies and it is believed in the trade that it will drop them altogether.
 
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Declan said:
It is a bit more complicated. You can write endless contracts to sell silver in the future, despite not having any silver at all.

It is the lad BUYING the contract that can buy on leverage. It is normally 5% but they have raised that and may well raise it to 100%. Meaning no leverage at all.


They could even change the rule to only all selling of contracts.

Say I have 5 contracts for March at a certain price. Then I could buy no more and neither could anyone else, so the price would in normal times drop like a stone.

To simplify, anyone that sold contracts to deliver silver in the future are in trouble because at the moment they need to buy that silver.

BUT.
They can change the rules. And force the lad demanding the silver to take cash instead, whether he likes it or not. This saves the system but likely destroys the futures market.


NOTE.
I do not and never will trade futures.

I do buy options. And I do write(sell) options. Both Calls and Puts. The only exception is , I will not write(sell) and uncovered or naked Call .


If I sell a Call contract, it is only if I actually already own the 100 shares of that stock, so if it goes against me and my shared are “called” away, at least I have them to deliver them to the lucky person.

God forbid you are Called and you dont iwn the shares, then you have to buy them no matter what price they could be at.
Click to expand...
how do you cope with the fact that when the shit hits the fan ALL GOVERNMENTS SEIZE ALL PERSONAL STORES OF PRECIOUS METALS.
 
Silver is a bit up and down over the last week.
I sold my initial investment and am going to see how it goes.
Up 280% since my initial investment though.
 
Now there is a good question!lol

So basically what happened on Monday is that the big guys got together, bearing in mind that silver, in the opinion of China now anyway, is an important strategic commodity, and kind of squeezed/defrauded the little guys in the market that were holding positions which could have yielded them a lot of money. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which own the New York Mercantile Exchange which owns or is partnered with COMEX where a lot of these trades are, changed the rules suddenly. They demanded a higher percentage of real money in these highly leveraged assets from certain holders of these instruments, who, as Declan pointed out, often hold only 5% of the asset they are controlling. This means that frequently these smaller or retail players, who for example could be sitting on $400,000 in silver certificates for an outlay of $20,000, were asked to increase their cash holding in these assets, up from that 5%, and when many didn't have the ready cash in the short space of time they were asked to produce it, their positions were liquidated and in the resulting semi-crash atmosphere the price of silver dropped.

Anyway that something like that happened everybody agrees on I think, but everything else is rumour and counter rumour and almost a messianic storm brewing in social media against it all: some big US banks are supposedly bust, the Fed Repo emergency funds were raided for 20 or 30 billions, some European banks are bust, etc etc, who knows how much or any of this is true. Really it all depends who you ask but its also very unlikely that this story is ending there, for example they are talking about a possible rift happening in the silver price between physical silver in Shanghai and these certificates and derivatives in New York, and anyway since China will restrict the sale of silver out of there on the 1st Jan it makes sense that you might now have two silver prices, but also does it mean China could now be sucking up whatever physical silver is to be had in the markets?
 
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scolairebocht said:
Now there is a good question!lol

So basically what happened on Monday is that the big guys got together, bearing in mind that silver, in the opinion of China now anyway, is an important strategic commodity, and kind of squeezed/defrauded the little guys in the market that were holding positions which could have yielded them a lot of money. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which own the New York Mercantile Exchange which owns or is partnered with COMEX where a lot of these trades are, changed the rules suddenly. They demanded a higher percentage of real money in these highly leveraged assets from certain holders of these instruments, who, as Declan pointed out, often hold only 5% of the asset they are controlling. This means that frequently these smaller or retail players, who for example could be sitting on $400,000 in silver certificates for an outlay of $20,000, were asked to increase their cash holding in these assets, up from that 5%, and when many didn't have the ready cash in the short space of time they were asked to produce it, their positions were liquidated and in the resulting semi-crash atmosphere the price of silver dropped.

Anyway that something like that happened everybody agrees on I think, but everything else is rumour and counter rumour and almost a messianic storm brewing in social media against it all: some big US banks are supposedly bust, the Fed Repo emergency funds were raided for 20 or 30 billions, some European banks are bust, etc etc, who knows how much or any of this true. Really it all depends who you ask but its also very unlikely that this story is ending there, for example they are talking about a possible rift happening in the silver price between physical silver in Shanghai and these certificates and derivatives in New York, and anyway since China will restrict the sale of silver out of there on the 1st Jan it makes sense that you might now have two silver prices, but also does it mean China could now be sucking up whatever physical silver is to be had in the markets?
Click to expand...
Sounds like it's safe to crawl but best keep my tin hat on!

Just on that last point China will do whatever it thinks will best suit China and with its heavy investment in the energy transition (which isn't going to happen) if that means buy up all the silver that's out there then that is what it will do. We only need look at its stranglehold over the lithium market to see that, estimates vary but around 80% of the world's supply is under the country's control it seems.
 
scolairebocht said:
Now there is a good question!lol

So basically what happened on Monday is that the big guys got together, bearing in mind that silver, in the opinion of China now anyway, is an important strategic commodity, and kind of squeezed/defrauded the little guys in the market that were holding positions which could have yielded them a lot of money. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which own the New York Mercantile Exchange which owns or is partnered with COMEX where a lot of these trades are, changed the rules suddenly. They demanded a higher percentage of real money in these highly leveraged assets from certain holders of these instruments, who, as Declan pointed out, often hold only 5% of the asset they are controlling. This means that frequently these smaller or retail players, who for example could be sitting on $400,000 in silver certificates for an outlay of $20,000, were asked to increase their cash holding in these assets, up from that 5%, and when many didn't have the ready cash in the short space of time they were asked to produce it, their positions were liquidated and in the resulting semi-crash atmosphere the price of silver dropped.

Anyway that something like that happened everybody agrees on I think, but everything else is rumour and counter rumour and almost a messianic storm brewing in social media against it all: some big US banks are supposedly bust, the Fed Repo emergency funds were raided for 20 or 30 billions, some European banks are bust, etc etc, who knows how much or any of this is true. Really it all depends who you ask but its also very unlikely that this story is ending there, for example they are talking about a possible rift happening in the silver price between physical silver in Shanghai and these certificates and derivatives in New York, and anyway since China will restrict the sale of silver out of there on the 1st Jan it makes sense that you might now have two silver prices, but also does it mean China could now be sucking up whatever physical silver is to be had in the markets?
Click to expand...


"but also does it mean China could now be sucking up whatever physical silver is to be had in the markets"?

Most likely a yes to that question.
 
This is complicated even further by the arrival of a hot utuber that appears ti be an expert and absolutely spot on. He is saying how the rules are changing not only on comex(fact) but elwhere as well( maybe not fact) . Everyone, me included is smitten with this lad .


He appears too good in fact.

Then we notice he is putting out a SHITLOAD of expert videos daily. His handle is

Asian Guy

Then the penny drops, his initials are AG, the symbol for silver, and he is AI.

So someone has pulled an expert propaganda hype to add into the mix.


WHO?? Well who knows!!!!
 
I see now there is a message added at the started, that was not there before!!!!
 
That is all AI..

But maybe AI is a lot better than say Peter Shiff etc etc

I had breakfast with a buddy a couple of months ago. He was telling me he pays $500 a year for some AI. I think it was GChat but not sure now as it did not make sense AT THE TIME. But he insisted it was brilliant and it told him when to buy and sell and what to buy and sell and was making him a bundle.

Looking at this video , I am concluding it is a different game now. This AI is just amazing. It seems to grab all knowledge and figures out what should be done
 
Declan said:
That is all AI..

But maybe AI is a lot better than say Peter Shiff etc etc Looking at this video , I am concluding it is a different game now. This AI is just amazing. It seems to grab all knowledge and figures out what should be done
Click to expand...
the key to what you have written is very important .
reality for AI is what ever reality you PERMIT it to see .
there are many search engines --as an experiment i had to almost force my indoctrinated kids to sit down with me and ask each search engine in turn which country murders the most Semitic people each year ---also which country on earth is the most anti Semitic .
it quickly became obvious that ALL the search engines were controlled by Israel as none of them could tell is how you could determine this .
we then asked my daughter to use her phone which had chat AI AND BACK CAME THE REPLY ""ITS COMPLICATED "" which showed when we examined it that the chat AI was Israeli owned also .
for the crack i asked them all about Jupiters moons as they have 100 irregular moons and 500 smaller moons and all knew and all could discuss these moons at length --but not which is the most antisemitic country on the planet earth ---even though the entire population of the planet knows Israel is.
 
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You should have asked which was the most antisemitic moon surely!!!!
 
  • Haha
Reactions: jpc
Is this true????

If it is, the bank was either Bank of America or

citi bank
 
Declan said:
Is this true????

If it is, the bank was either Bank of America or

citi bank
Click to expand...
One would have thought that with all the activity surrounding the broken bank it's name would have leaked by now.
 
Indeed, if it were true and not more fearmongering by a foreign hostile power to start a self fulfilling bank run.
 
Declan said:
Indeed, if it were true and not more fearmongering by a foreign hostile power to start a self fulfilling bank run.
Click to expand...
it has been stated that Deutsche bank has an exposure of over a trillion to worthless derivatives --i wonder who did that to them.
 
Mad as Fish said:
Supper had, dishes washed, cat stretched out in front of the fire......

Am I missing something?
Click to expand...
Substitute the cat for splitting timber for the next two months.
And we're on the same page.
 
Declan said:
You should have asked which was the most antisemitic moon surely!!!!
Click to expand...
just to bring you up to speed on the occupied USA.
the panicking Israelis have just hired Trumps campaign manager Mr Brad Pascal for an eye watering 1.5 million dollars per month .
His task to spot and promote influencrs amongst gen z and hire them in the service of Israel to manipulate the alogritims to enable the Israelis to control the narrative which they have lost control of .
and currently the Israelis are paying an astonishing 7,000 dollars a post from gen z influencers to insert content into the internet to block searches of the truth about Israel .
these young influencers are reported to be able to earn 100,000 per month posting Israeli friendly shite .
source -max bluementhal the greyzone .
 
BIG FAT HOOR said:
just to bring you up to speed on the occupied USA.
the panicking Israelis have just hired Trumps campaign manager Mr Brad Pascal for an eye watering 1.5 million dollars per month .
His task to spot and promote influencrs amongst gen z and hire them in the service of Israel to manipulate the alogritims to enable the Israelis to control the narrative which they have lost control of .
and currently the Israelis are paying an astonishing 7,000 dollars a post from gen z influencers to insert content into the internet to block searches of the truth about Israel .
these young influencers are reported to be able to earn 100,000 per month posting Israeli friendly shite .
source -max bluementhal the greyzone .
Click to expand...
Went to have a look at the Grayzone and came across this -

This week it was also revealed that Microsoft disabled the email account of the International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor Karim Khan, impeding the court’s work on executing the arrest warrant for Netanyahu and other senior Israeli leaders.

thegrayzone.com

How Microsoft became a hub for Israeli intelligence - The Grayzone

Microsoft's close collaboration with Tel Aviv — including its employment of over 1,000 Israelis — strongly undermines the tech giant's claim that no Palestinians have been harmed by its services. This article was originally published by ¡Do Not Panic! Last week Microsoft admitted providing large...
thegrayzone.com thegrayzone.com
 
jpc said:
Substitute the cat for splitting timber for the next two months.
And we're on the same page.
Click to expand...
Cats should be trained to split timber. If they put their heart and soul in to it, they would be good at it. Cats are very clever if they bother to put their mind to stuff.

I mean Cats can catch birds with nothing but their bodies and brains ( no tools needed ) Humans wouldn't catch a lot of birds under those conditions ! ! !
 
  • Haha
Reactions: jpc
I'm expecting a lot of volatility in the next two+ months, but I think the trend has been established. A currency reset is surely on the cards.
 
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