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In recent days this prospective war is becoming much more than mere speculation, so as a preliminary look at this likely conflict:
War aims of the participants
As far as we know, and again this is just speculation, the participants are only these two with their respective guessed at real war aims:
United States
– To start a fresh wave of Venezuelan emigration into other countries of Latin America (e.g. Peru and Argentina, who already host large numbers of such refugees) with a view to destroying the racial and hence national identity in these host countries. This, in retrospect, was a big reason for the Ukraine war and I think can be reasonably suspected here. If so the war can expect to be long lasting, to encourage this outflow and keep it out of the country.
– To capture Venezuelan oil resources. It has reputedly the largest such reserves in the world (and if neighbouring Guyana can be dragged into this it would expand even that high figure) with a type of heavy sour crude suited to a number of large oil refineries on the US’s Gulf Coast. As well as seizing it for itself, the US might wish to deny the oil to China, which is otherwise a big destination for this oil. If this is a war aim the model might be Syria, where, on various excuses, the US sent in military units to physically occupy the main oilfields, so they might do that here.
Venezuela
– The government here will be just trying to survive, and there is already open talk of Maduro fleeing to Brazil. While Venezuela is a large reasonably well populated country, and formerly one of the wealthiest in Latin America, it would be pretty impossible for their armed forces to stop the US bombing a particular building or compound, so who knows what will happen to the head of government who will presumably be occupying such a compound.. Either the heads of the government will end up like Gaddafi or Noriega or hold out for a long time like Assad in Syria, its really impossible to speculate here.
Possible pattern of the War
I don’t think we are talking about a huge US invasion of the whole land area of Venezuela. Its an enormous country, much of it mountain and jungle, so the tens of thousands of US troops that are already deployed for this would not nearly be enough in this large terrain and against what is stated to be a 4.5 million armed Venezuelan militia.
Instead the pattern here might be naval attacks on shipping in and out of Venezuela, because it has a big coastline and relies a lot on fishing and the travelling over and back of oil tankers, and this blockade, or at least periodic attacks on this naval traffic, is already happening. Then the US will do the same for the sky, nobody will be able to get into or out of the country without the say so of the US Air Force, which will be able to overawe Venezuelan opposition forces here very quickly I imagine.
Finally they might follow that up (at their own time and choosing, possibly the current naval and imminent air offensive will go on for a long time, or maybe not) with selective land operations, possibly taking big cities or toppling specific political/military assets, and then occupying the oil fields, as already stated.
Short Term Drama
Furthermore there might be about three issues that people will speculate about in the early hours of such an attack or invasion on Venezuela.
– The standing of President Trump within his MAGA movement in the US and generally in that country and around the world. He, and his senior officials, have already stated that drug smuggling is why they are targeting Maduro, they claim he is the head of some drug smuggling ring responsible for importation on a large scale into the US. Frankly hardly anybody believes this, and so if they persist in that line the chances are that Trump’s popularity in the US, and around the world, will tank. This in turn will presumably energise the Democrats in the US and the left wing around the world, and maybe we might hear even from our new left wing President on the subject.
– The whereabouts and standing of President Nicolas Maduro, and if he flees, his successor, as pointed out above. There might also be speculation about the new Nobel Peace prize winner María Corina Machado Parisca, and whether she might enter Venezuela, and if so where and when. Who knows whats going to happen but it is certainly going to be a focus of speculation in the early days.
– The question of the allies of Venezuela, and the obvious six million dollar question, are they going to come to the aid of Maduro now and fight off the US? This of course relates in particular to Russia, China and Iran. Frankly I think no, and the US media is already saying that, in the short term at least: Russia is probably too preoccupied with Ukraine and maybe Europe in general (if it wishes to invade further into that continent), and no doubt were consulted in Alaska and during the other recent talks between the US and Russia; Iran is already preoccupied with Israel (and related dramas in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen) and is probably not comfortable getting involved in some conflict outside the Middle East; and, going by the aforementioned US media reports anyway, China is too focused on trade wars and its recent deal on the subject with the US, to upset that balance.
At least they don’t want to upset anything trade wise, because they do have a lot of economic problems, before they are ready to target Taiwan, which would be much higher on their priority list than anywhere in Latin America. But China is the wild card here, it still might be too much for a country so closely identified with Venezuela, to expect it to meekly walk away, like they did recently when their ally Iran was similarly attacked. They might feel that their pride or ‘face’ was at stake here, so who knows what they might do.
So if there is to be a war between the US and Venezuela, and that seems almost certain now because even US national Congressional Representatives are talking about that breaking out ‘within days’, it raises the distinct prospect, although not a certainty by any means, of it being the preliminary to a war between the US and China, two huge nuclear powers obviously.
Scary thoughts to begin your week!
by Brian Nugent, www.orwellianireland.com .
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