First, I should mention that this thread isn't a forensic or expert investigation, I'm just sharing what I see and what I've seen previously. Nor am I attributing one way or another. Nor does this negate the countless civilians killed in Israel's campaign.
Now that day has broken, and we're getting better evidence, I'm willing to share some PRELIMINARY thoughts on the al-Ahli hospital explosion. The photos of the scene are, to me, not consistent with an airstrike and are not consistent with claims that 500+ people were killed.
Photos of the aftermath show that the vast majority of the damage is from fire. Only 3 cars show any clear sign of kinnetic/structural damage. And for two of them, the general structure remains intact - despite clear damage.
Indeed, within 10m of the impact site there are cars which appear mostly undamaged.
This lack of structural damage to most cars is also clear in the IDF released drone fotage from less than 2hr after the explosion. Again these only show 3 cars with structural damage, and cars more than around 10-15m away appearing mostly undamaged.
Footage from ground level this morning shows essentially no crater. And very little damage to the building around 20m away from the impact site.
Next I want to highlight one of the things that the IDF claimed showing damage to roofs of hospital buildings around 30-45m away from the impact site. This would be consistent with an object that broke apart in midair, though I wouldn't view this point as conclusively as others..
Namely because the 'before' image is from two days prior to the strike, I believe there were reports of the hospital being minorly damaged in strikes during that period so it is possible that the roof damage is not from the same time as the explosion.
Compare the damage from photos of rocket impacts in Ashkelon from last weekend. The only real difference is that this explosion appears to have involved more accelerant (which would track with reporting that this barrage was aimed at Tel Aviv).
Same lack of significant cratering, same structural damage/radius to parked cars. Similar in just a lot of ways.
Full Credit to -
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000
