Is The Economy Just Now Falling Apart

[Declan]

$181.56

 

[Declan]

$174.92.

A very profitable short trade. It looks easy but most short sellers go bankrupt.

 

[Declan]

Of most interest today is the rising interest rate on the 10 year which has made a new high of 1.75% as we speak.

 

[valamhic]

Of most interest today is the rising interest rate on the 10 year which has made a new high of 1.75% as we speak.

There are some terrific videos on the economy. You must assess them of course. A slight increase in interest rates
would cause serious problems for governments who have massive debts.

This relates to Ireland.

 

[Declan]

There are some terrific videos on the economy. You must assess them of course. A slight increase in interest rates
would cause serious problems for governments who have massive debts.

This relates to Ireland.

I greatly enjoy your videos. Can we have a section or thread devoted to them solely.

 

[Declan]

With the first decent cold snap hitting here by Tuesday, expect oil to open a bit higher when the markets open in 35 minutes.

 

[Declan]

$168.88.

Apple has lost $230 billion since it peaked a few days ago. That is just one single company. Who is going to be left holding the bag.

The 99.9%

Dow down 520 and all the signs of a crash

 

[Declan]

Oh By God. I think Turkey an China is the straw that broke the camels back. Big investors already lost heavily.

The realization that the tapering is not only to stop but actually reverse is the straw.
The Fed has about 8.5 trillion of assets, so when they sell them, the money paid to the Fed for the assets, just disappears, gone. So it is very deflationary.
This will initially drag silver down and set up the trade of a life time for those lucky enough to buy at that point. That time will be very short though and I would fear missing it.

But I intend to buy some more mining shares but am waiting a bit.

 

[Declan]

There is a legal limit, set by law, presently 31.4 trillion dollars, this being voted and passed a few weeks ago, raising it from a lower limit.

The expectation being that this would sustain things til after the midterm elections in 10 months. But the rate of increase meNs it will not be high enough as it is 29.7 trillion now ans could hit 30 by months end imo.
Getting it raised before the election would likely be very difficult.

If the interest gets above 2% this crisis can not be ignored.

A bounce in the markets today, and should the inflation reading tomorrow be lower than expected, then markets will rise some more, for one last chance to get out. As it is over.

A higher than expected reading will lead to an immediate drastic fall in stocks and bonds. And initially metals and bitcoin.

So a big day tomorrow

 

[Declan]

Amazingly, the stock market is clinging on to small gains and bonds are rising in price. But the breakdown is just briefly on hold in my opinion.

What is rising by a nice 38c issilver and that translates to happiness for me. Hopefully a solid bottom has been put into place and the rumored shortages are real and will lead to a squeeze.

 

[Declan]

The limit is a figure, 31.4 trillion. When we get up to that figure remains to be seen. Then it must be raised again or the country defaults.
My guess is that we get to that point well before the election in early November.

 

[Declan]

Over what period is that legal limit? A bloated limit is no limit at all. There was off course always devaluation of money.

I will watch this closely Friday as I was watching the market because silver finally came to life for at least two days. Somebody, who knows who but likely the mega banks or funds, have sold a gigantic number of silver contracts and they could be facing disaster, we shall see.

But God help the poor retail fools that are left now with huge loses Friday in Pelotron and Netflix. Netflix crashed 25% after the market closed.

It could be a very rocky day to set Monday up for the rout.

 

[Declan]

Looks like the murderer is not Slovenian but instead looks like a Roma. So hire a different translator.

 

[Declan]

Bitcoin going below 36000 likely means it is finished. It trades round the clock so is open through the weekend.

 

[Declan]

Tension over Ukraine are high. Russia is carrying out Naval exercised off the Irish coast.

Of interest is the fact that Treasury bonds are selling off. Usually any crisis will see a flight to safety. But US bonds are no longer that safe it seems.
We could see the end of the US asagreat power here very soon.

 

[Declan]

I agree, there is a senile president and a silly VP. He will keep printing money, bond holders will be repaid in inflated dollars. So if you buy bonds for the price of 100 houses in a good part of town, when you are repaid with interest in 10 years it will only buy 10 houses or less.

The two of them really believe they can avoid paying back by printing money and they can. That is why confidence in the dollar will fall.

Except he does not print money, he borrows it . It is The Federal Reserve, not the government that prints money.

And they have said they are stopping and even worse, are going to unprinted the trillions printed. So the markets are predictably crashing. And while prices may be going up, we are seeing massive deflation.
Which is a big problem for borrowers and the biggest oneistheUS government.

 

[Declan]

Prices can in fact rise even when we have deflation because deflation is the reduction in the money supply which is now happening. A trillion dollars evaporated off just bitcoin over the weekend. When this happens, we need a crisis in the bond market to shake confidence in the dollar. So we shall see a bit of a price rise but then numbers will come showing real estate falling etc etc. The Fed releases it's minutes tomorrow and it likely will signal a hike and the stocks anf bonds will have a rough time. We are very close to panic these past two days

 

[Declan]

Prices of things in scarce supply might rise, but watch now how real estate and land is about to fall. All eyes are on stocks tomorrow and into the weekend. It is looking like a deflationary crash.

 

[Declan]

Interest rates are about to skyrocket in my opinion but that quickly brings the real crisis and then the currency could crash, but so far, the dollar is getting stronger.

 

[Declan]

He is entertaining g but unfortunately he has been wrong wrong and wrong forever .

But maybe his day is coming. 110 billion dollars just disappeared off Tesla just today.
Watch out for deflation, there is a lot of money disappearing.

 

[valamhic]

Interest rates are about to skyrocket in my opinion but that quickly brings the real crisis and then the currency could crash, but so far, the dollar is getting stronger.

If they do government will go broke.

 

[Declan]

And quickly. The Federal debt yesterday hit $29.924 trillion dollars yesterday so 30 trillion could be reached even as soon as next week. The limit before it needed to be raised again is 31.4 trillion which will most likely not get us to the election.

What must happen soon is an bond auction where insufficient buyers show up.

 

[Declan]

The federal debt has just gone above 30 trillion dollars.
Next big economic report is Friday and the employment report.

 

[Declan]

I was talking yesterday to a person working for a small bio company. I was bemoaning the fact that I did not buy Moderna stock when I first heard of it and sell it at the top as it is down big time from the top.

 

[Declan]

Yesterday was an interesting day as the rate on the 10 Year Note(bond) hit 1.90. So at any moment next week we could surpass the big number of 2%. The debt above 30 trillion will quickly prove an albatross here

 

[Declan]

For one thing, it has alienated a large conservative segment. Exactly like Twitter.

 

[Declan]

With regards the debt, the maturity of the bonds has become shorter to grab lower yields needing to be paid by the government. So they must be rolled over in larger numbers.
Today we have 50 billion of three year notes being auctioned and buyers must show up and buy.

With the 10 year yield now at 1.95 at last look, it is only a matter of time before we see a very bad auction.

 

[Anderson]

Thor, who are you, as in what was your real name on Pish?

And why did you fall out with Dan?

That was David Ds, abusing my account Sir, I have no issue with Dan.

If anything we are both stock enthusiasts, wanting to make good money.

 

[Anderson]

There is a growing crisis within the world, debt is causing severe issues with inflation and people are starting to notice that they no longer have purchasing power and facing a mountain of debt.

 

[Declan]

The strong market yesterday was just because of Putin reversing. The interest rates are rising nearly every day, slowly but surely. So finishing the debt and continuing deficit is going to be a problem sooner rather than later.

 

[Declan]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

It is not easy to follow that article. It is impossible to say what the gold price would be if it were repriced to pay the debt because we do not know if they even have the amount of gold they claim to have.

 

[Declan]

That was David Ds, abusing my account Sir, I have no issue with Dan.

If anything we are both stock enthusiasts, wanting to make good money.

Well said.

 

[Declan]

The oil price increase is a few days ahead of the gas price. So 4 dollars a gallon in Massachusetts will be well broken by the weekend.

Keep in mind that the price can be about 30c higher in some stations and completely different in different states.
Like 7 dollars in parts of California by Sunday.

 

[Declan]

Oil up 8 dollars a barrel now at over $104 for West Texas oil

 

[Anderson]

Oil is $110 a barrel, the release of backup stock yesterday did nothing to ease the price.

The ridiculous thing is that these sanctions will hurt the west just as much as it is hurting Russia, in fact if anything Russia is making a fortune on the back of the rise in Oil and Gas prices.

 

[Declan]

Wti closed at $111.40 up 8 dollars. The gas and petrol price is likely less than a week behind so it is going much higher.
There comes a point that it really hits driving. And it is already above 4 dollars at some stations here. 3.39 yesterday evening at Rock bottom Costco.

 

[Declan]

$114.29 a barrel now.

 

[Declan]

A bargain. I will report on the cheapest here later today

 

[Declan]

$3.79 yesterday at the cheapest regular station I saw.
Costco was likely 15c cheaper.
Certainly by Sunday, it will not be got less than 4. Imo.

 

[Declan]

$3.89 at the cheap station. 3.50 at Costco.