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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Tiger" data-source="post: 132122" data-attributes="member: 353">Whether you were talking about abiogenesis or the fine-tuning of the universe, it makes no difference: neither of these are “50/50” propositions unless you're flipping a cosmic coin in a cartoon.Abiogenesis — the concept of spontaneous appearance of life from non-life — is not a playground for coin tosses. It’s an imagined biochemical symphony of staggering complexity, entirely without observed precedent and dependent on an orchestration of conditions so specific it still can’t be replicated in a lab.Likewise, the fine-tuning of the universe — the precise calibration of physical constants — isn’t some idle curiosity. It’s the mathematical equivalent of threading a needle from across the universe with your eyes closed, once, with no retries. These aren’t 50/50 odds. These are statistical impossibilities dressed in naturalist denial.And yet, instead of reckoning with that, you drag out the Monty Hall problem as if it’s going to save the day. But Monty Hall is a controlled system — three doors, known priors, fixed rules, and a host who always removes a dud. Fine-tuning and abiogenesis don’t work like that. There is no game show host. There are no rules we know are fixed in advance. You’re importing clarity into chaos, applying a clean math puzzle to metaphysical uncertainty, as if the Cosmos cares about your probability games.Trying to use Monty Hall to defend your “50/50” quip is like bringing a sudoku book to a nuclear physics exam and insisting they’re basically the same because both involve numbers. You’re not making an argument — you’re making a noise.</blockquote>

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