Ukraine.

Wolf

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It's a bot.
Why waste your time?
It's only when ya step back a bit then review what the pervert posts that ya actually see exactly what it is.
It's not a human or someone interested in discussing anything.
A paid bootlicking shill.
Funny as fuck when ya realise that.😂
 

Mad as Fish

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Putin disagrees.




They have loads of time to train now until Spring.
Many are being trained in Europe now.


NATO has only contributed a small fraction of assets to Ukraine.
As I have pointed out, you fail to understand the written word.

Where in that link does it say Russia intends taking any more territory? Nowhere!

The great spring offensive has failed, the Ukrainians are resorting to dragging any poor bloody male of the streets to staff an army. These people will not want to train or fight. One volunteer is worth ten pressed men as the saying goes.

NATO has thrown all it can spare at the conflict, and the tap is running dry.
 
A

A Man Called Charolais

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To be clear on Hungary and the EU.

In the last 36 hours Hungary has secured €10 billion of the €30 billion of structural funds the EU were withholding from them in an attempt to blackmail Hungary into following the liberal suicide the rest of the cuckold are involved in with their societies.

Orban stepped out of the room for a couple of minutes so the same cuckolds could vote to allow Zitler and Nazi Ukraine contact them for some shittakinig.

Orban and Hungary retain their veto power to stop Nazi Ukraine getting into formal talks on joining the EU at any point in time they choose.

After that Hungary used it's veto to stop the EU sending another €50 billion of taxpayers money to the corrupt Nazi Jews running Ukraine under the instruction of war terrorists in Washington.

A fantastic few hours work by a proper leader of his country.




I think there are a few reasons that Orban has interests in slowing down Ukrainian accession but there's one that I haven't heard yet in the commentary - the settlement of the war.

There will have to be negotiations and one of the big ticket items is Ukrainian accession to the EU. If this is put through too soon there will be little the Russians can agree to and that will threaten the wins that the negotiators can bring back to their citizens. Ultimately the Maidan was about Ukraine freeing itself from the Russian economic and political orbit - not about membership of NATO.

I supported this at the time and continue to support it but I have not supported the strategy used to effect it since the lines settled down after the initial Russian involvement in the Donbas was blunted - turns out none of them came to their senses.

The Ukrainians made phenomenal reversals to the Russian invasion but should have pivoted after the first counter-offensive succeeded. The army that was built up prior to the Russian invasion has been destroyed and that is a disgrace for Zelensky, the Ukrainian General Staff, and the Western patrons of Ukraine.

Haass was on Zachari's GPS today arguing that the Ukrainians sit back and invite Russian offensives. This should have been the strategy once it was clear that the Russian entrenchments were too developed to permit rapid advance. They should have pooled reserves in the rear and a) inflicted large casualties on the Russians and b) made their resource expenditures on trenchworks and training wasted. Perhaps they could have invaded Transnistria to provoke the Russians into a precipitative attack once their formations were deployed in anticipation of them. It was bad generalship that has led to this impasse and loss of life. There is only manoeuvring for peace negotiations now - that was always the case. This is fraying capability in other theatres.
 
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Kangal

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Europe is just paying more for its energy imports from Russia.
Europe does not give a flying fuck about its energy imports from Russia.


"In terms of net mass, Russia's shares in the EU imports of petroleum oils and natural gas have been decreasing continuously over time since the second quarter of 2022. Petroleum oils imports from Russia fell from a monthly average of 8.7 million tonnes in the second quarter of 2022 to 1.6 million tonnes in the second quarter of this year (-82%), but, in contrast, the imports from the extra-EU partners except Russia increased by 5.8 million tonnes, from 31.5 million to 37.3 million tonnes.

Russia's share in total EU imports of petroleum oils was 4.0% in the second quarter of 2023, a staggering difference from the 21.6% share recorded in the same quarter of last year."
 

Fishalt

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Head of Ukrainian Military Intelligence:

It is impossible without mobilization. Collectively, the Ukrainian Defense Forces now number 1.1 million . No amount of recruiting can cover such volumes. We don't have that many people willing to do whatever they want. I'm not even talking about fighting. There will be losses, and this number must be kept constant .”


View: https://streamable.com/iqpbnp
 

Mad as Fish

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I think there are a few reasons that Orban has interests in slowing down Ukrainian accession but there's one that I haven't heard yet in the commentary - the settlement of the war.

There will have to be negotiations and one of the big ticket items is Ukrainian accession to the EU. If this is put through too soon there will be little the Russians can agree to and that will threaten the wins that the negotiators can bring back to their citizens. Ultimately the Maidan was about Ukraine freeing itself from the Russian economic and political orbit - not about membership of NATO.

I supported this at the time and continue to support it but I have not supported the strategy used to effect it since the lines settled down after the initial Russian involvement in the Donbas was blunted - turns out none of them came to their senses.

The Ukrainians made phenomenal reversals to the Russian invasion but should have pivoted after the first counter-offensive succeeded. The army that was built up prior to the Russian invasion has been destroyed and that is a disgrace for Zelensky, the Ukrainian General Staff, and the Western patrons of Ukraine.

Haass was on Zachari's GPS today arguing that the Ukrainians sit back and invite Russian offensives. This should have been the strategy once it was clear that the Russian entrenchments were too developed to permit rapid advance. They should have pooled reserves in the rear and a) inflicted large casualties on the Russians and b) made their resource expenditures on trenchworks and training wasted. Perhaps they could have invaded Transnistria to provoke the Russians into a precipitative attack once their formations were deployed in anticipation of them. It was bad generalship that has led to this impasse and loss of life. There is only manoeuvring for peace negotiations now - that was always the case. This is fraying capability in other theatres.
But why would Russia want to take the offensive again, what more is there to be achieved? They have established a buffer zone of their own after the west renegaded on its promises and started to build up a proxy NATO force in Ukraine. NATO has met its match and found to be wanting, it can build up as big an army in the Ukraine as it wants, but Russia will be waiting, and while hostilities continue it take action to prevent such an army being put together.
 

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Ultimately the Maidan was about Ukraine freeing itself from the Russian economic and political orbit - not about membership of NATO.

I supported this at the time and continue to support it
but I have not supported the strategy used to effect it since the lines settled down after the initial Russian involvement in the Donbas was blunted - turns out none of them came to their senses.

What was/is The Maidan? From a simple msm news perspective it appeared to be a sudden coup in which the elected President was violently ousted from office - Him and a pro-Russian administration had to flee within an inch of their lives.
It's seems highly suspect that Ukrainian's didn't await the end of the political administration and simply vote in a new fully aligned EU/Western supporting president and administration who would become closer to Europe.

After all there was plenty of involvement with the west at the highest levels in the 20 years prior.
Who decided that Ukraine needed "freeing itself from the Russian economic and political orbit"
It was not the majority of Ukrainians because we know that Ukraine had several Pro Western presidents who were doing great things with the US/EU so Ukraine was actually benefiting from - Power Sharing.

You forgot to mention the war waged against the Donbas and the transference of Ukraine territory and assets to western corps.

So why The Maidan??
 

Mad as Fish

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Europe does not give a flying fuck about its energy imports from Russia.


"In terms of net mass, Russia's shares in the EU imports of petroleum oils and natural gas have been decreasing continuously over time since the second quarter of 2022. Petroleum oils imports from Russia fell from a monthly average of 8.7 million tonnes in the second quarter of 2022 to 1.6 million tonnes in the second quarter of this year (-82%), but, in contrast, the imports from the extra-EU partners except Russia increased by 5.8 million tonnes, from 31.5 million to 37.3 million tonnes.

Russia's share in total EU imports of petroleum oils was 4.0% in the second quarter of 2023, a staggering difference from the 21.6% share recorded in the same quarter of last year."
Have you spoken to 'Europe' about this?

I have.
 
A

A Man Called Charolais

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But why would Russia want to take the offensive again, what more is there to be achieved? They have established a buffer zone of their own after the west renegaded on its promises and started to build up a proxy NATO force in Ukraine. NATO has met its match and found to be wanting, it can build up as big an army in the Ukraine as it wants, but Russia will be waiting, and while hostilities continue it take action to prevent such an army being put together.

The Russian's objective from the start of the "special military operation" was to make Ukraine a proxy state again. That didn't work so they're trying to seize as much territory as possible east of the Dnieper.

If a peace settlement is not reached then they will recommence their offensive with the belief that Ukrainian forces are hollowed out and so a big push will see the Ukrainian lines crumple and break. That's the logic - it's the default.

Ultimately we've seen Finland and Sweden join NATO. These are terrible geopolitical results that makes the whole operation a strategic failure. That's not to say that it hasn't been terrible result for the West as well. It's all been an enormous mess the magnitude of which hasn't been realised yet.
 

Mad as Fish

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Europe definitely does need cheap Russian oil.
Mostly what's making life tough for OPEC is increased US oil production.
I have traveled to the continent several times this past few months and what has struck me is the resilience of the metal bashing companies in my particular field to the increase in energy prices, but before Jarry gets too smug about this I should point out there are, as I see it, two particular reasons for this.

The first is that the Ukrainian event pushed prices up, especially that of steel. Retail prices were raised in line with these costs but as the steel price dropped again energy prices stayed high, as did that of labour, so retail prices did not drop accordingly. In other words energy costs were absorbed, but this is only a temporary measure.

Secondly, and more intriguingly, the world still wants European products because they are superior to the home produced items. You think American or Japanese engineering has all the answers? Think again. The American ethos of bigger is better does not apply here in Europe, but certain goods made in Europe cannot be matched in sophistication by American companies. If the US thought that by making European industrial costs expensive it would gain an advantage, then it seriously miscalculated and will gain little from the exercise.
 
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A Man Called Charolais

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Boilerplate propaganda. Watching the MSM is boring. They don't report the news, instead the only reason to watch them is to see how they're trying to digest events in a way that their pillar will swallow. Think of these news channels as perception managers rather than as journalists as conventionally understood.


'Movements and groups abound in modern society. Sometimes, a movement or group succeeds in mobilizing a large section of a country’s population and thoroughly knitting it together, by building a pervasive subculture and by setting up a vast interrelated network of organizations, resulting in a segmented and powerful bloc.

...


Indeed, pillarization theory offers an antidote to all too individualistic interpretations of modern society: self-reinforcing group processes were and still are a common feature in the modern world and they have resulted on more than one occasion in divided societies, and continue to do so.'

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12108-020-09449-x
 

Mad as Fish

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The Russian's objective from the start of the "special military operation" was to make Ukraine a proxy state again. That didn't work so they're trying to seize as much territory as possible east of the Dnieper.

If a peace settlement is not reached then they will recommence their offensive with the belief that Ukrainian forces are hollowed out and so a big push will see the Ukrainian lines crumple and break. That's the logic - it's the default.

Ultimately we've seen Finland and Sweden join NATO. These are terrible geopolitical results that makes the whole operation a strategic failure. That's not to say that it hasn't been terrible result for the West as well. It's all been an enormous mess the magnitude of which hasn't been realised yet.
Was that ever stated either overtly or covertly?
 
A

A Man Called Charolais

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What was/is The Maidan? From a simple msm news perspective it appeared to be a sudden coup in which the elected President was violently ousted from office - Him and a pro-Russian administration had to flee within an inch of their lives.
It's seems highly suspect that Ukrainian's didn't await the end of the political administration and simply vote in a new fully aligned EU/Western supporting president and administration who would become closer to Europe.

After all there was plenty of involvement with the west at the highest levels in the 20 years prior.
Who decided that Ukraine needed "freeing itself from the Russian economic and political orbit"
It was not the majority of Ukrainians because we know that Ukraine had several Pro Western presidents who were doing great things with the US/EU so Ukraine was actually benefiting from - Power Sharing.

You forgot to mention the war waged against the Donbas and the transference of Ukraine territory and assets to western corps.

So why The Maidan??

I can't speak to the absorption of Ukrainian assets by Western capital. There was a raiding of Russian assets in the 90s that was reversed during the first years of the Putin presidency. This is probably a lot of the reason why Putin is so vehemently regarded by corporate media. It may be that the Russian agitprop machine is projecting this on to Ukraine or it might be that this has some basis in truth.

The Maidan was about a promise that was made to the Ukrainian public by Yanukovych to begin the accession process to the EU. They were sick of the corruption and crime predating on the public and saw EU membership as a path out of it.

Yanukovych reneged on that promise and that kicked off the Maidan. True, certain actors in the West put their oar in but if the general public had not supported the expulsion of Yanukovych then the change in government would not have survived the counter-measures by the Russians.

There was a major invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. That the Ukrainians are still in the fight and in the possession of most of its territory is a testament to their determination to remain independent. The problem is the approach that has been imposed on them by moody and doltish elites. Must do better in statecraft results in thousands of deaths - it's unacceptable.
 
A

A Man Called Charolais

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Was that ever stated either overtly or covertly?

They said they were going to de-Nazify Ukraine and that was the purpose of the "special military operation". That meant political purges and the placement of their own people into positions of power. It's a political policing objective. They were absolutely going to make sure that Ukraine was nailed down to the Russian sphere.

Now, there is something else here that you could argue in Russia's favour (though not in support of their methods) but I probably shouldn't elaborate.
 

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jpc

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The Russian's objective from the start of the "special military operation" was to make Ukraine a proxy state again. That didn't work so they're trying to seize as much territory as possible east of the Dnieper.

If a peace settlement is not reached then they will recommence their offensive with the belief that Ukrainian forces are hollowed out and so a big push will see the Ukrainian lines crumple and break. That's the logic - it's the default.

Ultimately we've seen Finland and Sweden join NATO. These are terrible geopolitical results that makes the whole operation a strategic failure. That's not to say that it hasn't been terrible result for the West as well. It's all been an enormous mess the magnitude of which hasn't been realised yet.
The Russians concerns and requests were constantly ignored and scorned by the US and NATO.
These are the consequences of lies and dealing in bad faith and hubris.
The deceitful behaviour of Minsk Agreements.
The Russians didn't instigate this conflict.
They wil finish it.
To their satisfaction.
 

clarke-connolly

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The Russians concerns and requests were constantly ignored and scorned by the US and NATO.
These are the consequences of lies and dealing in bad faith and hubris.
The deceitful behaviour of Minsk Agreements.
The Russians didn't instigate this conflict.
They wil finish it.
To their satisfaction.
The Russians have been Very Patient.

Which also helps the, Russians Win Major Wars ! ! !
 

Professor

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The Maidan was about a promise that was made to the Ukrainian public by Yanukovych to begin the accession process to the EU. They were sick of the corruption and crime predating on the public and saw EU membership as a path out of it.
The Maidan was a significant initial action in an attempt to kick Russia out of Ukraine altogether.
Political promises are expected to be broken and so the president was dragging his heels, big deal? No, because things were doing OK.
As suggested the EU accession could have waited a few years till the next election.
The Maidan was about initiating military action which had little/no general Ukrainian support but was organised and carried out by US sponsored Warlords & their Nazi's.
The whole Western backed approach is and always has been about Kicking Russia out of Ukraine - lock stock and barrel.
The Ukrainian's would never have agreed to that, but they were led and forced by those who would persist in trying, for absolutely no advantage to Ukraine.

We can be sure that Yanukovych was not going to sign over Russian interests to what was Foreign western Interests as was his right.
The Maidan/Coup was a blatant terror attack which actually failed to do any good for Ukraine, unsurprisingly.
Waiting for a change in presidency was the right thing to do but of course joining the EU wasn't really such a pressing issue for Ukraine, but it was for their leaders - It is they who destroyed everything from the very planning of that bloody coup.
 
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A

A Man Called Charolais

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The Russians concerns and requests were constantly ignored and scorned by the US and NATO.
These are the consequences of lies and dealing in bad faith and hubris.
The deceitful behaviour of Minsk Agreements.
The Russians didn't instigate this conflict.
They wil finish it.
To their satisfaction.

Granted, we have a weak generation of politicians - the product of political negative selection, complacency, and the infiltration of subversive elements into the political infrastructure.

Mearsheimer (who is acting a little peculiarly lately - it can't possibly be roubles, can it?) might argue the following:

'The arrangement of state boundaries was the product of the voluntary disintegration of the USSR under the agreement that there would be no encroachment into the CIS sphere by Western military interests.

Given NATO has expanded into Eastern Europe - the borders of the former Soviet Republics no longer rationally conform to the security interests of Russia so the arrangement no longer has standing given the precondition for it was unilaterally broken.

The fact that the West has not recognised, or calibrated, for this is negligent and/or malicious. The condemnation of Russia's behaviour is childish pique at not getting their capricious way.'

[Mearsheimer didn't say this, I was conjecturing that he might argue along these lines]

Okay, but Russia does use subversive methods to undermine its geopolitical rivals and this has blowback attached.

I suspect that the reason why many here support Russia is not because of any particular Russophilia but because of Socrates.
 
A

A Man Called Charolais

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The Maidan was a significant initial action in an attempt to kick Russia out of Ukraine altogether.
Political promises are expected to be broken and so the president was dragging his heels, big deal? No, because things were doing OK.
As suggested the EU accession could have waited a few years till the next election.
The Maidan was about initiating military action which had little/no general Ukrainian support but was organised and carried out by US sponsored Warlords & their Nazi's.
The whole Western backed approach is and always has been about Kicking Russia out of Ukraine - lock stock and barrel.
The Ukrainian's would never have agreed to that, but they were led and forced by those who would persist in trying, for absolutely no advantage to Ukraine.

We can be sure that Yanukovych was not going to sign over Russian interests to what was Foreign western Interests as was his right.
The Maidan/Coup was a blatant terror attack which actually failed to do any good for Ukraine, unsurprisingly.
Waiting for a change in presidency was the right thing to do but of course joining the EU wasn't really such a pressing issue for Ukraine, but it was for their leaders - It is they who destroyed everything from the very planning of that bloody coup.

The number of Ukrainians supporting EU accession appears to be growing. Fifty-nine-percent support the notion of their country becoming a member of the 28-nation-bloc. Twenty-four percent are opposed to its admission. That appears to be a new trend, as last year the number of EU-proponents in Ukraine was much lower.

These are the results of the current DW-Trends for Ukraine. The representative survey was conducted by the Office of the Ukrainian research institute, IFAK, in June 2013 on behalf of DW'S Ukrainian language department. One thousand people, between the ages of 18 and 65 years, were interviewed in Ukrainian cities with more than 50,000 people.

Ukraine: EU support up - DW
07/03/2013


Next week, an association agreement with the EU is on the table at a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. While falling short of giving Ukraine EU member status, the agreement provides for free trade with Europe and is seen as a symbolic move westward, away from the former Communist masters in Moscow.

A furious Kremlin has used a combination of small potential carrots and huge potential sticks, warning that if Ukraine signs the agreement it could lead to economic turmoil and political unrest. Moscow wants Ukraine to join its own free trade grouping, the customs union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, which many have seen as an effort to reconstitute elements of the Soviet Union

Ukraine faces critical east-west tug of war over EU association agreement - The Guardian
20 Nov 2013


Thousands of people have staged fresh protests in Ukraine's capital, Kiev, at President Viktor Yanukovych's refusal to sign an EU association agreement.

Some 10,000 Demonstrators in Independence Square carried Ukrainian and EU flags late on Friday and chanted "Ukraine is Europe".

Mr Yanukovych, who attended an EU summit in Lithuania on Friday cited pressure from Russia for his decision.
A smaller rally in Kiev voiced support for the president's decision.

EU leaders meeting in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, warned on Friday they would not tolerate Russian interference in the bloc's relations with former Soviet republics.

Ukraine protests after Yanukovych EU deal rejection - BBC
30 November 2013


The European Parliament gave its consent to the EU-Ukraine Association agreement, which includes a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), on Tuesday in Strasbourg. At the same time, the Agreement was also ratified by the Ukrainian Parliament in Kiev. The deal will establish a deep political association and economic integration between the EU and Ukraine and provide for mutual free market access.

European Parliament ratifies EU-Ukraine Association Agreement - European Parliament
16-09-2014
 

jpc

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Granted, we have a weak generation of politicians - the product of political negative selection, complacency, and the infiltration of subversive elements into the political infrastructure.

Mearsheimer (who is acting a little peculiarly lately - it can't possibly be roubles, can it?) might argue the following:

'The arrangement of state boundaries was the product of the voluntary disintegration of the USSR under the agreement that there would be no encroachment into the CIS sphere by Western military interests.

Given NATO has expanded into Eastern Europe - the borders of the former Soviet Republics no longer rationally conform to the security interests of Russia so the arrangement no longer has standing given the precondition for it was unilaterally broken.

The fact that the West has not recognised, or calibrated, for this is negligent and/or malicious. The condemnation of Russia's behaviour is childish pique at not getting their capricious way.'

[Mearsheimer didn't say this, I was conjecturing that he might argue along these lines]

Okay, but Russia does use subversive methods to undermine its geopolitical rivals and this has blowback attached.

I suspect that the reason why many here support Russia is not because of any particular Russophilia but because of Socrates.
There's no supporting Russia
Just the observation and recognition of idiot and potentially disastrous behaviour from the US.
Remember that the US defeated the USSR.
It collapsed and disintegrated.
What did the US do with the end of the cold war?
 

Professor

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Some 10,000 Demonstrators in Independence Square carried Ukrainian and EU flags late on Friday and chanted "Ukraine is Europe".
EUr joe king right??🤪
Really though, 10,000 is a very small turnout - Not great support from the general public at large, but more in line with a division of an army or small show from football supporters at a lesser game, C'mon Maan!!:LOL:
 

Professor

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Europe does not give a flying fuck about its energy imports from Russia.
Ah it does . . .

The proposal comes as the EU is trying to phase out Russian gas completely from the bloc by 2027 :LOL:, without an outright ban on Russian gas imports.


EU gas imports from Russia have been decreasing ever since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

However, one-tenth of the total gas imports of the EU still come from Russia.

In fact, data shows that the bloc's purchases ofliquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia have soared between January and July in 2023 compared to the pre-war levels.

Member states have different positions, while the Netherlands has taken a firm approach against Russian gas shipments, Belgium:ROFLMAO:, Spain and France are still allowing the import and export of Russian gas, saying that it is difficult for their companies to leave the existing contracts.

The negotiators from member nations and the European Parliament are expected to endorse the preliminary text on Friday, the FT report added.
 
A

A Man Called Charolais

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EUr joe king right??🤪
Really though, 10,000 is a very small turnout - Not great support from the general public at large, but more in line with a division of an army or small show from football supporters at a lesser game, C'mon Maan!!:LOL:

We can differ on this but I did note earlier that Ukraine would not have survived if it did not have the support of its population and hundreds of thousands of veteran reservists.

Russia was relying on a lack of support for the Ukrainian state when it invaded but, because it was mistaken in this, was routed from Northern Ukraine and had to do heavy work to win Mariupol despite its logistical and material advantages.

I think that many support Russia because of the same reason Socrates used Sparta as a model for parts of the Republic - his ideal state. Athens had been defeated by Sparta and, as is common, the defeated party copies the model of the victorious one.

Given the social chaos we are experiencing in the West due to the degeneration of society, an appeal to the Russians as an alternative model is made. This is why many would like to see Russia prevail in Ukraine - it might put an end to the social madness we're going through by sharpening the collective mind via the imposition of a cost on the celebration of folly and intrigue. It appears hopeless at the moment and so drastic measures are coveted.

However, the outcome of this might not be so much an Orthodox response as a CCP one of digitalised suffocation.

We can have some thanks to Johnson for closing out the COVID ordeal when he did but his journey to stop a peace deal in the Spring of 2022 was a crime against humanity. Nuland and her ilk have been nothing but a handicap and a liability.
 

Professor

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I think that many support Russia because of the same reason Socrates used Sparta as a model for parts of the Republic - his ideal state. Athens had been defeated by Sparta and, as is common, the defeated party copies the model of the victorious one.
Perhaps what you say above but of course from an old historical perspective there's so much more to consider probably more relevant and recent too
Take a look at a map of Europe from 1850 for example . . . .

europe18500429-966582100.jpg


It gives us an instant glimpse into the origins of Russia's claims in the region, but by 1857 had lost Crimea in the war, it was another 70 years before the Soviets(Russians) reclaimed it again.
It's those histories which are relevant and fascinating, of course not just Russia but all the powers of Europe and Eurasia who were involved.
In addition we can consider Napoleon's 1812 and as a Grand Adventure to whet our appetites we must look into The 30 Years war 1618-1648.

Just in their general summaries alone we can gain so much about the powers who are participating in today's conflicts. No doubt commanders & politicians from those days would have been well schooled in Socrates - Greece and what the Romans did with it later😜
 

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The Russian's objective from the start of the "special military operation" was to make Ukraine a proxy state again. That didn't work so they're trying to seize as much territory as possible east of the Dnieper.

If a peace settlement is not reached then they will recommence their offensive with the belief that Ukrainian forces are hollowed out and so a big push will see the Ukrainian lines crumple and break. That's the logic - it's the default.

Ultimately we've seen Finland and Sweden join NATO. These are terrible geopolitical results that makes the whole operation a strategic failure. That's not to say that it hasn't been terrible result for the West as well. It's all been an enormous mess the magnitude of which hasn't been realised yet.
Russia has the part that produced the wealth so the rump will have to be subsidized
 

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Ukrainian commander-in-chief's office was wiretapped. Looks like a civil war is fomenting.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/17/7433465/

A wiretapping device was found in the office of Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

Source: Ukrainska Pravda sources in the Ukrainian military

Details: Sources told Ukrainska Pravda that a wiretapping device was found on Sunday, 17 December, during a routine inspection.

The room was to have been the Commander-in-Chief’s new office and was being inspected prior to him moving into it.

Similar devices were also planted in the offices of Zaluzhnyii’s colleagues.

Update: The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) later stated that a technical device that was not in working order had been found in one of Zaluzhnyi's potential locations, and that criminal proceedings have been opened.
 

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