Is The Economy Just Now Falling Apart

Short America & Go Long BRIC Countries – Charles Nenner

 
Another very rocky day with everything falling, stocks , bonds and metals.

The crisis point must be finally here and that is when the dollar will collapse. People are still buying these bonds , chasing the higher rates. But this debt will never be repaid and the 32 plus trillion in treasuries are worthless, as are corporate and municipal as well.

I see the yen held for now 150, and it is a dead duck as well.
This whole thing is on its last few days now imo.
 
Is the economy going well skin ? Know many people who have bought a house lately or even been approved for a mortgage ? I certainly dont
Funnily enough, I know a few. And I haven't seen a house stay on the market for more than 4-5 weeks. Supply is the problem right now.
 
The mini post covid Celtic tiger is almost over, how will Paddy react when the kitty is empty?
Paddy doesn't want to acknowledge the fact.
The first thing that should happen is slash ngo budgets.
Total overspend on largely overlapping organisations that do what exactly in many case's.
 
Paddy doesn't want to acknowledge the fact.
The first thing that should happen is slash ngo budgets.
Total overspend on largely overlapping organisations that do what exactly in many case's.
Jobs for the boys, and anytime the goverment wants a few bodies on the street protesing in support of its refugee policies, or whatever, then a few calls around the said boys should get the lads and lassies out.
 
Is the economy going well skin ? Know many people who have bought a house lately or even been approved for a mortgage ? I certainly dont
Heard a few stories re mortgage applications of late, you need to go jumping through all sorts of nonsensical hoops before the banks will prise open the safe, a process that can now take months rather than just a couple of weeks.
 
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As the Federal Debt jumps about 400 billion in 10 days.
We are finally rocking and rolling.
 
The flight out of the sinking ship is plain to see.
I definitely agree this cannot go on. However I think it will go on all of this year and the crash will be in March next year. They will continue to print money to stave off the evil day and the Fed will rise interest rates to 5,25% this month and 5.5 to the end of the year. The rates will go to 6% in January. That will hit businesses hard.

Government is buying back 60% bonds at full value. That is a bail out. There is no way this can go on until Easter.
 
Heard a few stories re mortgage applications of late, you need to go jumping through all sorts of nonsensical hoops before the banks will prise open the safe, a process that can now take months rather than just a couple of weeks.
They should have done tris in June. Several farmers round here were bid out of land they could do with.
One new buyer failed to come up with the money and I reckon more will not be able to pay the loan.
 
They should have done tris in June. Several farmers round here were bid out of land they could do with.
One new buyer failed to come up with the money and I reckon more will not be able to pay the loan.
It's been going on for a while now, one story I heard was of a couple that applied back in the spring to increase their mortgage to fund an extension. It has only just been approved. But you are right about land purchases, the milk price has dropped enormously and I should imagine that will have caught a few out.
 
It's been going on for a while now, one story I heard was of a couple that applied back in the spring to increase their mortgage to fund an extension. It has only just been approved. But you are right about land purchases, the milk price has dropped enormously and I should imagine that will have caught a few out.
Farmer near me who stopped doing milk 2 years ago, he would be in the know. Says the milk price went from 50 cents to 32 cent a litre in the last 6 weeks. 18 cent drop. 36%. He says some are heavily borrowed and are hurting bad.
 
It's been going on for a while now, one story I heard was of a couple that applied back in the spring to increase their mortgage to fund an extension. It has only just been approved. But you are right about land purchases, the milk price has dropped enormously and I should imagine that will have caught a few out.
A friend of mine is a 5th generation dairy farmer. Property is in Gippsland, Victoria.

Even with him explaining the industry to me, I still don't understand how I can go into my local store and buy 2L of milk for less than 3$ having seen the work that goes into producing it. Economics make absolutely zero sense to me.
 
A friend of mine is a 5th generation dairy farmer. Property is in Gippsland, Victoria.

Even with him explaining the industry to me, I still don't understand how I can go into my local store and buy 2L of milk for less than 3$ having seen the work that goes into producing it. Economics make absolutely zero sense to me.
There are two parts to the answer here.

The first is that milk is regarded as a known value item within the retail trade. That is, as a staple item customers will tend to consider those stores that sell it cheap as being good value stores to shop at. Supermarkets know this and may actually sell it at zero, or less, profit to draw the customers in. This is often referred to as a loss leader and helps account for the low price of milk.

At the other end of the chain there are farmers who are trying to produce the stuff at a profit but they are hamstrung by the fact that unless they also retail it into the local community, or add value by making cheese or butter, they have no control over the price they receive for it, not over here anyway.

Milk is traded on a global basis with dried milk powder being one of the major commodities by which the price is determined. Thanks to a baby milk contamination scandal in China many years ago, the demand for trusted powder comes mainly from the east and if China stops buying then the milk price plummets everywhere and we have seen something of that recently.

However, dairy farmers do have more control over their input costs and so they constanly seek to reduce them. One way is through the economies of scale which is why we have seen herds grow ever bigger. More efficient production is another goal of farmers and this has grown tremendously as well, with fewer staff and machines producing more milk off the same land area.

Unfortunately, those machines have got more expensive, which neatly leads to the point that the suppliers of farm inputs will know the margin that farmers are working on and will price their products accordingly. One major tractor manufacturer boasted to its shareholders last year that it put its prices up simply because it could, I think it might be regretting that claim now.

This is only scratching at the surface of the complexities of farming and the food chain in general, yet at its core the reason we enjoy relatively cheap food, measured as a proportion of household expenditure, is because the retailers have put pressure on farmers to reduce costs and the farming community has, to a large extent, responed by becoming more efficient.
 
I clicked on a link today discussing gentry still owning huge estates in Ireland. One lad had most of his land in England and had the distinction of supplying fully 10% of all onions in England. That is something to think about.
 
I clicked on a link today discussing gentry still owning huge estates in Ireland. One lad had most of his land in England and had the distinction of supplying fully 10% of all onions in England. That is something to think about.
That fella must ~ Know his onions ! ! !
 
A friend of mine is a 5th generation dairy farmer. Property is in Gippsland, Victoria.

Even with him explaining the industry to me, I still don't understand how I can go into my local store and buy 2L of milk for less than 3$ having seen the work that goes into producing it. Economics make absolutely zero sense to me.
I wonder how much water is added to milk when it is being pasteurised etc etc etc ? !
 
Paddy power is closing 25 shops in Ireland fairly rapidly despite revenues increasing 11% ...I was in a bookies yesterday morning waiting for a windscreen to be fitted , there was 6 or 8 people there at half 10 in the morning mostly older dudes ......almost 4 hours before racing begins
 
Paddy power is closing 25 shops in Ireland fairly rapidly despite revenues increasing 11% ...I was in a bookies yesterday morning waiting for a windscreen to be fitted , there was 6 or 8 people there at half 10 in the morning mostly older dudes ......almost 4 hours before racing begins
the government announced this morning during the debate about the new gambling bill that there are 10 !!! times more problem gamblers in Ireland than realized .
and many of them lose a 1000 a month .
it will be interesting what DJs evidence will be -- he lived near me for a while hiding out in the home of an ex kilkenny hurler .
i would imagine gambling will be his defense .
 
the government announced this morning during the debate about the new gambling bill that there are 10 !!! times more problem gamblers in Ireland than realized .
and many of them lose a 1000 a month .
it will be interesting what DJs evidence will be -- he lived near me for a while hiding out in the home of an ex kilkenny hurler .
i would imagine gambling will be his defense .
You could probably bet on that ! ! 😲 😲
 
Paddy power is closing 25 shops in Ireland fairly rapidly despite revenues increasing 11% ...I was in a bookies yesterday morning waiting for a windscreen to be fitted , there was 6 or 8 people there at half 10 in the morning mostly older dudes ......almost 4 hours before racing begins
HOW GAMBLING AFFECTS YOUR BRAIN .
is a good site and everyone should read it .
it explains our lives very well and shows the measures used against us which are designed to take advantage of the brains functions -- including certain smells boost gambling an astonishing 46%.
and near misses produce as much or more DOPAMINE as a success .
dopamine is the drug produced in our drug factory by our workers in our brain the gambling companies get this for free all they have to do is to stimulate production and they are off -- just let the suckers hand over their cash ,
whether--- earned ---stolen--- borrowed--- who cares just fu--k up your life and the lives of your families and hand over the cash .
 
the government announced this morning during the debate about the new gambling bill that there are 10 !!! times more problem gamblers in Ireland than realized .
and many of them lose a 1000 a month .
it will be interesting what DJs evidence will be -- he lived near me for a while hiding out in the home of an ex kilkenny hurler .
i would imagine gambling will be his defense .
When I used to be catching the bus from Bus Aras I would go into one of the low class pubs in that area for a few whiskies to help me sleep on the journey. The local Dub lower orders would be there reading the sports
section of the gutter press and running in and out to the bookies nearby. I pitied the bar staff and the bookie staff
having to look at such tossers for a living,

They reminded me of those two awful seminars we used to have on Pisles Gowl and Ds.
 
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There are two parts to the answer here.

The first is that milk is regarded as a known value item within the retail trade. That is, as a staple item customers will tend to consider those stores that sell it cheap as being good value stores to shop at. Supermarkets know this and may actually sell it at zero, or less, profit to draw the customers in. This is often referred to as a loss leader and helps account for the low price of milk.

At the other end of the chain there are farmers who are trying to produce the stuff at a profit but they are hamstrung by the fact that unless they also retail it into the local community, or add value by making cheese or butter, they have no control over the price they receive for it, not over here anyway.

Milk is traded on a global basis with dried milk powder being one of the major commodities by which the price is determined. Thanks to a baby milk contamination scandal in China many years ago, the demand for trusted powder comes mainly from the east and if China stops buying then the milk price plummets everywhere and we have seen something of that recently.

However, dairy farmers do have more control over their input costs and so they constanly seek to reduce them. One way is through the economies of scale which is why we have seen herds grow ever bigger. More efficient production is another goal of farmers and this has grown tremendously as well, with fewer staff and machines producing more milk off the same land area.

Unfortunately, those machines have got more expensive, which neatly leads to the point that the suppliers of farm inputs will know the margin that farmers are working on and will price their products accordingly. One major tractor manufacturer boasted to its shareholders last year that it put its prices up simply because it could, I think it might be regretting that claim now.

This is only scratching at the surface of the complexities of farming and the food chain in general, yet at its core the reason we enjoy relatively cheap food, measured as a proportion of household expenditure, is because the retailers have put pressure on farmers to reduce costs and the farming community has, to a large extent, responed by becoming more efficient.
Excellent post Fish.
 
Further evidence that the US economy is in trouble comes from the freight sector with shipping companies reporting dramatic falls in revenue -

Flexport has struggled with the slowdown in global trade since last year. The company hasn’t provided any financial details, but The Information reported in September that Flexport’s revenues fell 70% to $700 million in the first half and that it burned through $300 million in cash. A different FreightWaves source said Flexport lost closer to $260 million. Large, established competitors such as DSV, Expeditors and Kuehne+Nagel reported first-half declines in revenue in the 40% range and similar drops in profits. Flexport says it has $1 billion in net cash.


In a different article from the same source it is noted that labour is returning to the trucking industry which, to my mind, suggests that it is being released from elsewhere within the economy as its still a crappy job, despite all the glitz and glamour of driving a big rig.

 
Excellent post Fish.
Thank you, from someone of your ability that is indeed a compliment, but there is still the question raised about adulteration of the milk supply, something which I need to look into as milk processing has developed immensely over the past couple of decades and I find myself a little left behind TBH.
 
A comment says that a trillion dollars were printed in the past two weeks. I must check that my understanding is that a trillion has been unprinted and the money supply is dropping like stone.
 

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