Ukraine.

[Tuco Salamanca]

Ukraine is decimating Russia's oil refining capacity.

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edition.cnn.com

“If you think about the sanctions that have been put in place so far, they’ve largely bypassed energy,” Croft explained. “It really has been energy exports, crude, natural gas, refined products, that have given Russia the economic lifeline to continue to fight this war.

Ukraine says 12% of Russian refining capacity is now offline, while Reuters calculates it’s up to 14%. Russia has admitted some of its refining capacity is down and has temporarily banned exports of gasoline to avoid an increase in domestic fuel prices.

View: https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1775041402767880212

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Anyway!
In the real world!

Yes, in the real world Russia, once considered to be the world's second most powerful military, couldn't even take Kharkiv, a city 20 miles from their border!

So far, after over 2 years all they've managed to achieve is capturing less than 20% (a chunk of which they've already controlled since 2014) of Ukraine.

And this against the poorest country in Europe fighting with Soviet leftovers and Nato hand-me-downs from the 80s and 90s.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

 

[dropkickmejeebus]

Ukraine is decimating Russia's oil refining capacity.

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edition.cnn.com

View: https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1775041402767880212

No it didn't! It hit a dormitory at the back of the plant. The second one missed as well.

Here's a more accurate strike from the Russians two days ago.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

View attachment 4892

No it didn't! It hit a dormitory at the back of the plant. The second one missed as well.

View attachment 4893
Here's a more accurate strike from the Russians two days ago.

Well if the Russians say so, it must be true.

Meanwhile, Russia has banned exports of refined oil products.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Apparently, the U.S isn't keen on Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. Phuck them.

I can't think of a more cost effective means of bringing Russia to its knees. In reality what should be happening is that Ukraine is supplied with the means to increase these attacks 20 fold.

Hopefully soon they'll start bombing the oil ports to really ramp up the pressure. Turn off the spigot and watch the Russian war machine wither and die.

 

[dropkickmejeebus]

Well if the Russians say so, it must be true.

Meanwhile, Russia has banned exports of refined oil products.

Yep. This is the dormitory. 12 injured.

Have they banned all oil exports or just those to certain countries?

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

View attachment 4894

Yep. This is the dormitory. 12 injured.

Have they banned all oil exports or just those to certain countries?

Come back to me with a credible source and then we'll talk.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

In addition to helping Ukraine ramp up its attacks on Russian refineries and ports, I think it's time Western intelligence agencies started sabotaging tankers carrying Russian oil.

Ideally, this would be done in tandem with U.S shale producers boosting their production and Opec agreeing to do likewise (which might be challenging given the situation in the Middle East).

But it can be done. And it'll involve minimal loss of life.

 

[dropkickmejeebus]

In addition to helping Ukraine ramp up its attacks on Russian refineries and ports, I think it's time Western intelligence agencies started sabotaging tankers carrying Russian oil.

Ideally, this would be done in tandem with U.S shale producers boosting their production and Opec agreeing to do likewise (which might be challenging given the situation in the Middle East).

But it can be done. And it'll involve minimal loss of life.

But if there's apparently an embargo on exports, what tankers will they target?

 

[dropkickmejeebus]

Come back to me with a credible source and then we'll talk.

Ok I'll answer the question you didn't. Russia has halted exports but member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) are excluded from the ban. They did the exact same last year to stabilize domestic market prices and carry out essential repairs. It's no biggie. Don't fret, they'll be fine.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

But if there's apparently an embargo on exports, what tankers will they target?

Everyone and their dog knows that the Russians are managing to evade the oil cap and embargoes by exporting to third countries.
The Gulf states in particular have been making hay, importing cheap Russian oil for domestic use and exporting their own at a premium.

If the Western intelligence agencies got their finger out, they'd no doubt be able to interdict a sizeable chunk of this outflow. This in addition to ramping up the attacks on Russian oil refineries would cripple the Russian war machine -- which is already hobbling along as it is, barely managing to advance a few miles since the start of the year.

 

[dropkickmejeebus]

Everyone and their dog knows that the Russians are managing to evade the oil cap and embargoes by exporting to third countries.
The Gulf states in particular have been making hay, importing cheap Russian oil for domestic use and exporting their own at a premium.

If the Western intelligence agencies got their finger out, they'd no doubt be able to interdict a sizeable chunk of this outflow. This in addition to ramping up the attacks on Russian oil refineries would cripple the Russian war machine -- which is already hobbling along as it is, barely managing to advance a few miles since the start of the year.

O course they are. They were also doing exchanges in international waters. Guess who their biggest customer was? The US.

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

O course they are. They were also doing exchanges in international waters. Guess who their biggest customer was? The US.

Citation needed

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

An excellent analysis of the demise of Russian arms exports.

 

[dropkickmejeebus]

Citation needed

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/11/14/russian-oil-sanctions-us-greece-turkey/

Quick one

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/11/14/russian-oil-sanctions-us-greece-turkey/

Quick one

That article is behind a paywall.

Does it mention the U.S as being their biggest customer (which is what you claimed), or just that they're a (unwitting) customer?

 

[PlunkettsGhost]

An excellent analysis of the demise of Russian arms exports.

Why would a nation prepping for a greatly expanded conflict with NATO be exporting arms right now?

 

[Tuco Salamanca]

Why would a nation prepping for a greatly expanded conflict with NATO be exporting arms right now?

No, it's due to a collapse in demand. Watch the video (the decline started before the war and has since accelerated).

This war has exposed Russian arms as junk.

 

[Mad as Fish]

An excellent analysis of the demise of Russian arms exports.

The conflict will have been closely followed and analysed by armies everywhere, and they may have come to the conclusion that buying tanks is now a waste of time effort and money.