Gold at $25000. Silver at $600.

[Declan]

View: https://youtu.be/SboFigZYRQ8


Finally the spare or excess silver has been used up. This can be seen by the very wide premiums now being demanded when buying actual silver. The American eagle is selling for $40 as the spot price is only $25.

It seems the last three weeks have been hectic, coinciding with the failure of the two american banks and then later credit Suisse.

It looks like the comex and the paper markets are about to lose their control. I expect this could kick off as soon as these three remaining days this week.

This stampede is going to be hectic. A few years ago it got to be close to 30 and it was beaten down. A lot of silver has been removed from the market since then.

 

[Fishalt]

I've been hearing you metal bugs talk like this for twenty years!

Well, you've got to be right eventually.

 

[Declan]

We have been right 3 times, it goes up and it goes down.

I am a hoarder and a speculator. I buy physical and hold forever, but I play the options as well. I have made a fortune and I have lost a fortune. I am loaded up now and hope to make a mega fortune.

But if it does not come in time, all those options expire worthless.

 

[Fishalt]

We have been right 3 times, it goes up and it goes down.

I am a hoarder and a speculator. I buy physical and hold forever, but I play the options as well. I have made a fortune and I have lost a fortune. I am loaded up now and hope to make a mega fortune.

But if it does not come in time, all those options expire worthless.

How does a contract for difference work on paper silver anyway? I imagine it's tethered to some kind of Silver Pool. Have you ever found yourself in a position where the option prints but the guy on the other end/the brokerage has refused or rolled over on delivery of physical silver? Do you exercise the option and take the IOU to a vendor, or just convert it immediately into liquidity?

 

[Declan]

A contract and an option are different things.

But similiar in the sense they have a finite time for it to go your way.

A contract is where today silver is say 25$. You can buy a contract to have someone else sell you at say 30 $ in 6months. If in 6 months it never gets above 30 dollars an ounce then your contract is obviously worthless as why buy at 30 when you can buy cheaper. But if it gets to 35 then you have made money. You can sell the contract for money back to the lad and he loses.

However, on very rare occasions, if you have the ability, you can "take delivery". Then the other side has to actually delivery the quantity of silver covered by the contract. If they do not have it they have to buy it . Driving up the price.

The comex, an exchange market, can just write any number of contracts and sell them.

The dream is to have enough people, if in profit, to demand delivery. The exchange would not have enough metal, and they would be in big trouble.

That is " braking the be change". Then silver would obviously skyrocket.

 

[Declan]

It all began in the agritural market with farmers wishing to sell their crop in the future at a guaranteed price, taking the risk out of cheap autumn prices, but giving up the potential extra profit should prices have gone very high.

 

[Declan]

 

[Fishalt]

lol I know, Declan. Contract for difference.

I was just curious because I've never bought or sold silver equities, or options tethered to metals. It appears to work the same way as any other security.

I looked at the performance chart for that Index (Ishares silver Trust) and it has returned 19.11% over three years, which is less than a superannuation fund would have returned over that same period, which is yet another reason why I don't do metals, and prefer to swing trade stocks.

I can see why you'd want to trade it, but you'd have to keep your ear to the tracks pretty much constantly to squeeze decent, consistent gains out of it and there'd be a lot of back-and-forthing.

You'd have to have balls of steel to hold an option on this for anything less than 3-4 months IMO. Very stochastic.

 

[Declan]

Most options expire worthless. So if you hit, you gotta let it run, and hope to fuck it does not reverse

 

[Declan]

 

[Declan]

Onward and upward. I am " in the money" above 50 and am coining it.

 

[PlunkettsGhost]

New year highs today for silver. Still waiting for 40$, then I'm out

 

[Declan]

Why, 40 would signify it going parabolic in a crisis.

If it gets to 40 it is going to $300

 

[PlunkettsGhost]

Why, 40 would signify it going parabolic in a crisis.

If it gets to 40 it is going to $300

Nuclear bombs would have to be falling from the sky to get silver past 60. Inherent value , or even a failing dollar, does very little to move the needle. It has to be very bad news. A fake financial system that does not operate under fundamentals is driven by news and opinion only. The Dow still being above 20 is a sure sign of financial farcical theater

 

[PlunkettsGhost]

Gbtc is a fun one also . Recently jumped back into it. Has some legs

 

[Declan]

Silver got to 54$ more than 40 years ago.

 

[PlunkettsGhost]

Silver got to 54$ more than 40 years ago.

Exactly, at a time when some financial fundamentals were still operative. Not the case today. Silver should be 150 rn.

 

[Declan]

Bad day today on large volumn.

 

[Declan]

 

[Declan]

That is an unusual trading pattern, signaling a big move. But sometimes in the wrong direction.