Is The Economy Just Now Falling Apart

[Declan]

Americans are the most cowardly conquered people on earth .

Yes and no.

There are about 30 million tough fucks in this country that would fight.

To bamboozle them we have Trump.

But there still could be a million ready to go.

Who knows.

 

[AUL LAD]

Too fucking bad you are not across the street from me.

I now realize thanks in part to discussion here, that my survival might be assisted by the demise of a country, or two.

what would you do if i was --the poor ethopian bus driver who was trying to feed his village got a tough time of it from you --i know how he feels as you know .
please explain why i would be welcome .

 

[Declan]

How did the driver get a bad time from me.

We worked together twice. I do not employ him. I do not tip him, I have nothing to do with him at all except for the few hours we were together.

We get along great.
I dont think you understand the dynamics here.

At one time I used to hire a bus and driver, but rarely do so now, it is too much hassle.

The BMW driver who was with me with the Israeli billionaire. He for example was hired by some company in Texas for that one job for that one day. I never met him before and am unlikely to ever work with him again.

 

[AUL LAD]

How did the driver get a bad time from me.

We worked together twice. I do not employ him. I do not tip him, I have nothing to do with him at all except for the few hours we were together.

We get along great.
I dont think you understand the dynamics here.

At one time I used to hire a bus and driver, but rarely do so now, it is too much hassle.

The BMW driver who was with me with the Israeli billionaire. He for example was hired by some company in Texas for that one job for that one day. I never met him before and am unlikely to ever work with him again.

i actually thought you made the whole thing up as a joke and i replied in kind as a joke--i did not realize you were serious as i prompted this by saying the sharing of tips between you and the driver should be 80-20 in his favor as he has the much more responsible role.
sharing which is usual here is 50- 50 guide driver .
restaurants here share tips between the kitchen and waiting staff and it is a unforgiving area if you do not surrender your tips to the pot .

 

[Declan]

i actually thought you made the whole thing up as a joke and i replied in kind as a joke--i did not realize you were serious as i prompted this by saying the sharing of tips between you and the driver should be 80-20 in his favor as he has the much more responsible role.
sharing which is usual here is 50- 50 guide driver .
restaurants here share tips between the kitchen and waiting staff and it is a unforgiving area if you do not surrender your tips to the pot .

I dont agree with communistic tendencies such as this and was only a fool once when the a bad embalance occurred. I got 250 and he got only 50. So I did what any decent sharp witted humanitarian would do.

I told him I got 150 and tossed him a $50 bill to make us equal.
This was a rare occasion. I owed him a bit anyway because on a tour before that we ran late due to traffic and he did not kick up. He had to go to the airport after the tour.

But it is not an equal task here. I have to be happy, I have to be the same politics as my guests, I have to have the knowledge, I have to track times, the driver just needs to drive.

On most of my tours I drive and talk, in my su urban, and is easier for me than being on a bus

 

[Declan]

But I likely am earning twice what the driver does, I am just talking tip.

And indeed sometimes the tip is small as well, it depends. And if it is a bus of individuals rather than a extended family, then people might give 10 or 20 EACH.

 

[Declan]

The Eye-Popping Interest Payment Spike On Our National Debt

The combined net worth of the most prominent billionaires in the United States would not be enough to pay a single year’s interest payment on America’s ballooning national debt, which currently stands at an astonishing $34 trillion.The combined net worth of some of America’s most prominent...

www.dailywire.com

The interest payments are beginning to bite.

77 billion in October compared to 44 billion last year, to begin the fiscal year.

 

[scolairebocht]

The best way to understand "survival" now is to picture yourself in Nazi Germany around 1937. Yes your country and you are facing a disaster but what do you do? Hiding up in the hills with a patch of land is no use at all because of conscription, and other laws, like gold confiscation, that a fascist state can and will bring in.

But at that stage the fascist state in all its glory is not complete, you can still oppose it, if you can combine with others?

Right now opposition to the new plantation in Ireland is kicking off, there is likely to be a 24 hour vigil near you on the subject. You can go and cooperate with that and fight for your country, so as to some extent evade the disaster coming. Yes its not easy and could involve sacrifice. You also will not be cooperating with the 'beautiful' 'successful' people of Ireland probably, because they just don't care about their country, or are too cowardly to defend it.

Your country is realistically your last line of defence in this battle, you alone, and your family, are too small a unit to oppose anybody probably.

And yes you will find the usual shils in high positions in this movement, your actions and motives misrepresented by the media etc, but you still have to fight I would say.

 

[Mad as Fish]

How did the driver get a bad time from me.

We worked together twice. I do not employ him. I do not tip him, I have nothing to do with him at all except for the few hours we were together.

We get along great.
I dont think you understand the dynamics here.

At one time I used to hire a bus and driver, but rarely do so now, it is too much hassle.

The BMW driver who was with me with the Israeli billionaire. He for example was hired by some company in Texas for that one job for that one day. I never met him before and am unlikely to ever work with him again.

Talking of which I once helped organise a trip round Ireland for a Swedish group, I booked the venues, they booked the bus. Now, that effin driver/guide was the mouthiest git going who insisted on telling them all about everything, whether he knew anything about it or not. From Kerry he was, and a big buddy of the Healey Reas, or so he kept assuring us although it meant nothing to the folks from the forests. Tip? I was kind enough not to deck him.

 

[jpc]

The Eye-Popping Interest Payment Spike On Our National Debt

The combined net worth of the most prominent billionaires in the United States would not be enough to pay a single year’s interest payment on America’s ballooning national debt, which currently stands at an astonishing $34 trillion.The combined net worth of some of America’s most prominent...

www.dailywire.com

The interest payments are beginning to bite.

77 billion in October compared to 44 bilion llast year, to begin the fiscal year

The party is over for government.
And the corporation's

 

[AUL LAD]

But I likely am earning twice what the driver does, I am just talking tip.

And indeed sometimes the tip is small as well, it depends. And if it is a bus of individuals rather than a extended family, then people might give 10 or 20 EACH.

The best way to understand "survival" now is to picture yourself in Nazi Germany around 1937. Yes your country and you are facing a disaster but what do you do? Hiding up in the hills with a patch of land is no use at all because of conscription, and other laws, like gold confiscation, that a fascist state can and will bring in.

But at that stage the fascist state in all its glory is not complete, you can still oppose it, if you can combine with others?

Right now opposition to the new plantation in Ireland is kicking off, there is likely to be a 24 hour vigil near you on the subject. You can go and cooperate with that and fight for your country, so as to some extent evade the disaster coming. Yes its not easy and could involve sacrifice. You also will not be cooperating with the 'beautiful' 'successful' people of Ireland probably, because they just don't care about their country, or are too cowardly to defend it.

Your country is realistically your last line of defence in this battle, you alone, and your family, are too small a unit to oppose anybody probably.

And yes you will find the usual shils in high positions in this movement, your actions and motives misrepresented by the media etc, but you still have to fight I would say.

a recent development is interesting -- Irish people have not warmed to what is referred to as far right as they do not appear respectable or come from a respectable part of society and they are generally perceived as nutters while at the same time agreeing with almost everything they say they have no presence in Ireland with the Irish as they have not broken through the respectability fire wall .
THE FARMERS PARTY is where it will all happen .
like Germany and Holland they are not perceived as nutters --they will be seen as respectable Irish people with money balls and well connected clout .
i have nothing but respect for the people of the east wall who protested and were deplorably ignored by their politicians who i quote their local labor snob TD ""why would i talk to them"".
however if 10 people from the east wall came here to rural Ireland they would sound like semi literate ex trade unionists on drugs --- the first few words out of their mouths would condemn them to oblivion in rural Ireland .
we are who we are and complaining will not fix it --- but i will join the farmers party as they will be concerned with the wealth of the people of Ireland whether they be 3 years of age or 93 years old .
they will not push the mad gender agenda or seek to prepare our children for the peaodos who lodge their books in our library's.

 

[AUL LAD]

Talking of which I once helped organise a trip round Ireland for a Swedish group, I booked the venues, they booked the bus. Now, that effin driver/guide was the mouthiest git going who insisted on telling them all about everything, whether he knew anything about it or not. From Kerry he was, and a big buddy of the Healey Reas, or so he kept assuring us although it meant nothing to the folks from the forests. Tip? I was kind enough not to deck him.

The core of their trip was the driver -- why would you organize the trip and NOT talk to the driver .

 

[Declan]

The party is over for government.
And the corporation's

Hopefully.

 

[SeekTheFairLand]

a recent development is interesting -- Irish people have not warmed to what is referred to as far right as they do not appear respectable or come from a respectable part of society and they are generally perceived as nutters while at the same time agreeing with almost everything they say they have no presence in Ireland with the Irish as they have not broken through the respectability fire wall .
THE FARMERS PARTY is where it will all happen .
like Germany and Holland they are not perceived as nutters --they will be seen as respectable Irish people with money balls and well connected clout .
i have nothing but respect for the people of the east wall who protested and were deplorably ignored by their politicians who i quote their local labor snob TD ""why would i talk to them"".
however if 10 people from the east wall came here to rural Ireland they would sound like semi literate ex trade unionists on drugs --- the first few words out of their mouths would condemn them to oblivion in rural Ireland .
we are who we are and complaining will not fix it --- but i will join the farmers party as they will be concerned with the wealth of the people of Ireland whether they be 3 years of age or 93 years old .
they will not push the mad gender agenda or seek to prepare our children for the peaodos who lodge their books in our library's.

And they will fold at the first sniff of EU grant money.. which is what they’ll be offered and they’ll take, like they did every time before. Who has been electing ff and fg for decades but the ‘respectable’ cunts in country.

 

[Declan]

The core of their trip was the driver -- why would you organize the trip and NOT talk to the driver .

That is Ireland, but it certainly is not here. I knew a guide who had to tell a driver to shut his mouth.

Fortunately I only do maybe 10 bus tours a year and only once had a talker who needed the hint.

With the Ethiopian, he was a listening, as some others do, most just drive.

 

[clarke-connolly]

Listening to this in the background ~ ~ Argentina has learned a lot of lessons.


View: https://twitter.com/JMilei/status/1747901513920331912

 

[Declan]

At the start of the month we surpassed 34 trillion on the debt. Today it on 34.109 trillion. It is rising 150 billion a month. I expect this to really increase as revenues are falling off a cliff.

I suspect we will hut 35 trillion by June 1st easy. But the graph is going vertical and this will be an issue very soon. I expect within 6 weeks that there will be a a failure in one of the bond auctions and interest rates will be back to new levels above 5% on the 10 year in the next 4 weeks.

4.17% today on the 10 year bond.

 

[jpc]

At the start of the month we surpassed 34 trillion on the debt. Today it on 34.109 trillion. It is rising 150 billion a month. I expect this to really increase as revenues are falling off a cliff.

I suspect we will hut 35 trillion by June 1st easy. But the graph is going vertical and this will be an issue very soon. I expect within 6 weeks that there will be a a failure in one of the bond auctions and interest rates will be back to new levels above 5% on the 10 year in the next 4 weeks.

4.17% today on the 10 year bond.

We're fucked then!

 

[Declan]

It s the only hope western civilization has imo.

 

[A Man Called Charolais]

Listening to this in the background ~ ~ Argentina has learned a lot of lessons.


View: https://twitter.com/JMilei/status/1747901513920331912

Milei was invited to tip the hat and join the club, he didn't. His speech was more like this:

​

 

[Declan]

Musk is seeing Tesla being reduced 13% today.

 

[Mad as Fish]

Musk is seeing Tesla being reduced 13% today.

It's not so much him that should be worried as the other car makers who have invested billions in EVs.

 

[clarke-connolly]

Musk is seeing Tesla being reduced 13% today.

Musk may have to do some more, Jew Loving ! ! !

 

[A Man Called Charolais]

'“No fuel, no food, no future” — that is the slogan most often used by German farmers, obviously in English because it was the only way to get mass exposure of their current plight.

However, you’d be forgiven for missing the protests raging across Germany — and in many other countries this past week, including Romania and France — due to the mainstream media’s apparent disinterest in the farming revolution, with producers seemingly given particularly strict instructions on what to, and what not to report.

The existence of protests unfolding throughout Europe appeared to be under some form of media embargo.'

Why is the West’s mainstream media ignoring the farmers’ revolt? - Remix

 

[Myles O'Reilly]

That's more like it Tony. Short, to the point, and clear

 

[Declan]

They fear the farmers.

Even in Ireland d, they have the double barrel.

 

[Coal Gas and peat]

Recession confirmed after Ireland’s GDP shrank in 2023

Ireland was officially in recession last year – as expected – though the domestic economy is still chugging along.

www.independent.ie

 

[Declan]

Profits hit €103m at homebuilder Abbey, but sales fall

Profits at homebuilder Abbey – which was taken private by the Gallagher family in 2021 – soared 20pc to £88.4m (€103.6m) in its last financial year even as turnover fell amid fewer sales, newly-filed accounts for the business show. Its performance was helped by its plant hire division.

www.independent.ie

where are people getting the money to live. It can only be through loans secured by houses. Houses are unaffordable so has the collapse arrived in Ireland.

When does a house go on the market and is not snapped up as appears the case at the moment.

 

[Skin the Goat]

The stock market ‘should keep going up’: Dave Dodson | Fox News Video

Stanford School of Business professor Dave Dodson reacts to stocks posting eight straight weeks of gains on ‘Your World.’

www.foxnews.com

 

[Declan]

Stocks going up is no surprise because it is the number of dollars needed to buy them that is going up just like everything else. In 1974 the Dow was 760. Today if is FIFTY times higher.

 

[PlunkettsGhost]

Stocks going up is no surprise because it is the number of dollars needed to buy them that is going up just like everything else. In 1974 the Dow was 760. Today if is FIFTY times higher.

Right, and they stock increases are not keeping up with inflation either. Better off to have invested in real estate or land

 

[PlunkettsGhost]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czw7Kwjelvk&t=2s

 

[Declan]

Right, and they stock increases are not keeping up with inflation either. Better off to have invested in real estate or land

But houses and to a lesser extent land is astronomically expensive now to the new demand of 10million people illegals and about 6 million legals over the past year.

In Ireland this is far far worse percentage wise.

 

[Tiger]

The stock market ‘should keep going up’: Dave Dodson | Fox News Video

Stanford School of Business professor Dave Dodson reacts to stocks posting eight straight weeks of gains on ‘Your World.’

www.foxnews.com

The stock market going up when there’s bad news is normally an indication of central bank interference in the market.

 

[Coal Gas and peat]

I see PayPal has announced serious job losses , enda Kenny had a horn on him when these jobs were announced , they barely lasted a decade

 

[jpc]

I see PayPal has announced serious job losses , enda Kenny had a horn on him when these jobs were announced , they barely lasted a decade

All service provider jobs are ready to move at a moment to another location or simply disappear.

 

[A Man Called Charolais]

Does anyone understand this? Seems important.

From what I can gather - there was something called frontrunnning that we learned about during the lead up to 2008 crisis.

In it, Wall Street firms used computers to track market bids. They could make a trade faster than a human so knew what the moment to moment price changes were. If a bid to buy for $1 a share was made, they could buy it for 99c a share and fill the order making 1c a share (or 0.1c a share etc.). While the gains would be very small this would build up over a trading day and be a nice earner for whoever had the algorithm running.

I recall watching the Washington Journal on CSPAN and a guy called in and said that most of the trading was automated. There was a "we get all the crazies" look from the host. That's when I first heard about it.

Anyway, the news broke and we're all like "sure it's grand" now - it provides liquidity to the market and as far as I know it is still going on. They wanted to put a penny tariff on each share traded just to take the margin off this activity but I don't think it came to anything. It's not blatant cheating or anything like that.

It looks like this is going on in government debt in America as well. Hedge Funds are trading massive volumes of bonds to earn a tiny margin off market moves. Because they use massive loans (leverage) the money they put up gets a good percentage return (10%). It looks like they're relying on something along the lines of the Fed Put (or effectively a trading insurance policy from the Federal Reserve like they have for home loans) to keep the thing going - it's so large that it poses "systemic risk".

Apparently it also means that this activity makes the market "liquid" or that if you want to buy or sell something you can pretty much do it when you like rather than having to wait an hour or a day or a week or a month to have a trade accepted.

There was also talk about CDOs and other derivatives - that I'm not sure I understand other than they appear to be insurance policies that traders take out to minimise the amount of money they can lose if there is a big change in price. There's supposed to be TRILLIONS of this in the system but it's all very opaque in the day to day and never mentioned on CNBC or Bloomberg.

Anyway, the SEC (the regulators of Wall Street) want the Hedge Funds to have to give them more information on what they're at which threatens to put friction in the government debt market if they don't sign up (they're unlikely to because they're sort of playing the system) and this may cause problems in the Federal Government's ability to borrow in the market. Given there's a multi-trillion dollar deficit, this could be challenging going forward.

I don't know if this is a good summary of the below article. It was on the front page of ZeroHedge but is behind the paywall now. I'd appreciate some clarification on it.


'The SEC ... decided in a 3 to 2 vote to boost oversight of rates trading by the firms, which are increasingly responsible for liquidity in the world’s biggest government bond market but only because they use trillions in leverage. The new regulations would also apply to market participants in additional government bonds, equities and other securities.

...

Since it was the catastrophic implosion of the basis trade - or rather the leverage the kept it viable - in Sept 2019 and again in March 2020 that sparked a panicked emergency reaction by the Fed, it is not a surprise that regulators had been looking for ways to glean more insight into the books of hedge funds that dabble in the trade.

Under the rules, dealers would include firms that buy and sell securities for their own account as part of the regular course of their business. the label also carries more oversight from the industry-backed Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.

...

The presentation then goes on to discuss some of the fundamentals in the basis trade (must read for anyone unfamiliar with the reasons why hedge funds are so drawn to it) and then turns its attention to the type of returns hedge funds generate in the TSY basis trade as well as the associated leverage. Here is where we find out that "indicatively", the leverage involved is a whopping 20x, or in other words a mere 5% positional drawdown on the pair trade - which was saw repeatedly during the March 2020 covid shock - is enough to wipe out all the equity in the trade!

And what is even more terrifying is that TBAC's quiet, tacit admission that "repo and futures margins do permit higher leverage", which is why one can be certain that many hedge funds use that, or even higher leverage than 20x!

...

One final question: how big is the basis trade (after all we need some context to quantify the systematic risk). Well, the answer is nobody knows because the breakdown of how much regulatory capital is allocated to basis trades is secret, and is why the SEC is now demanding more clarity and will start treating basis traders as dealers.

...

And there you have it: all the basis trade is, is the latest manifestation of the "collecting pennies in front of a steamroller" trade, because when it works it generates 10% returns every year like clockwork, with the only gating factor being how much leverage a hedge fund has access to.

...

The rule, which was adopted after a close 3-2 vote, will go into effect 60 days after publication in the Federal Register. Companies would have to comply with the registration requirements one year after that date. At that time, liquidity in the bond market may disappear.

https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TBACCharge1Q12024.pdf'

SEC Cracks Down On Basis Trades, Will Force Top Hedge Funds To Register As Dealers, Resulting In Collapsing Treasury Market Liquidity - Zerohedge

 

[Declan]

It is not complicated. It is illegal. It is where a broker in the old days would have someone tell him to buy a big volume of shares that might nudge up the price. So the broker himself or another would buy first.


Not sure about the electronic age, people just buy their shares themselves now. But discount broker firm allow free trades. They get info that AI can use to make trades. How that works, is unknown to me.

 

[A Man Called Charolais]

It is not complicated. It is illegal. It is where a broker in the old days would have someone tell him to buy a big volume of shares that might nudge up the price. So the broker himself or another would buy first.


Not sure about the electronic age, people just buy their shares themselves now. But discount broker firm allow free trades. They get info that AI can use to make trades. How that works, is unknown to me.

Front-running, from what I understand, and I don't know but, a bid is put out into the market to buy an asset. This bid is then accepted and the trade is made.

I think that the interval between the time the bid is put out and the bid is accepted by an asset owner is intercepted by the algorithm. So it buys the asset at a lower price and then fills the bid. This is where it finds the arbitrage to make money. There was a big deal about who has the highest connectivity times and, as I recall, there are cables and wires running into large underground server banks around the street to get milliseconds ahead of these messages.

Essentially front-running skims from the seller by taking a margin off their price and rationalises this by the provision of a liquidity function. Huge flows of trades slosh around the system as a result. It isn't much of a penalty on individuals rather it is grind on the market as a whole. (It was a penny a trade rather than a penny a share traded just to correct my above post - they said that this would be enough to make it not worth doing)

I think this bond thing is about forcing price changes in the bond market by trading large volumes and then taking the profit from the nudge in the price.

They use very high leverages to do this so it's essentially high stakes betting that they've integrated into their quarterlies because it's never been called (aren't they very clever?). The SEC know it's shady but because it's gained such a momentum there's a hazard in winding it up.

Could be that the movers here know they're going to lose the election and they're throwing in a spanner. But what do I know?

Its still 60 days out and there are high powered lawyers on the case to bring it to naught so it's still unknown what will come of it. Mr Gecko is not pleased - he has to grow his returns every quarter and this would set him back.

 

[Myles O'Reilly]

Does anyone understand this?

Nobody. Its too long for a start.